Summary: The Colombia 2026 presidential race enters the new year as a dead heat on Polymarket, but traditional polling tells a different story. With a 13-point gap between market pricing and polling fundamentals, is Iván Cepeda undervalued?
Executive Summary
The Colombia 2026 presidential race enters the new year as a dead heat. On Polymarket, Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro are now tied at 37% each, with Cepeda dropping 6 points over the past week while de la Espriella edged up 1 point. Roy Barreras has emerged as a dark horse, surging 5 points to 9%, while Sergio Fajardo continues to fade at 12%. This market convergence comes despite traditional polling still showing Cepeda with a commanding 13-point lead (31.9% to 18.2%). The widening gap between market pricing and polling fundamentals strengthens the case that Cepeda remains undervalued, though recent allegations of a state intelligence-backed "dirty campaign" against him warrant monitoring as a potential catalyst.
--• 1. The Market
Market: Polymarket — Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Resolution Date: June 21, 2026 (potential runoff)
Polymarket Pricing (December 31, 2025)
• Abelardo de la Espriella: 37% (up 1) • Iván Cepeda Castro: 37% (down 6) • Sergio Fajardo: 12% (down 1) • Roy Barreras: 9% (up 5) • Volume: $1,783,817
!Colombia Presidential Election • Polymarket Price History
Price History
Both leading candidates have traded in a relatively tight range since September. De la Espriella surged to around 60% in early September before settling into the 30-40% band where he has remained. Cepeda has shown more volatility, spiking above 50% in late October and early November before gradually declining to current levels. The two candidates have converged toward parity over the past two months, with neither establishing sustained separation. Fajardo has traded steadily in the 10-20% range throughout, while Roy Barreras has recently climbed from low single digits to 9%. Total volume has grown to $1.78 million, reflecting increasing market interest as the March primaries approach.
Key Dates
• March 8, 2026: Congressional elections, right-wing Gran Consulta primary (six candidates, including Vicky Dávila), and first major test of coalition strength. De la Espriella will not participate, running instead as an independent. • May 31, 2026: Presidential first round. If no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff. • June 21, 2026: Potential runoff election.
--• 2. The Consensus
Market Narrative
The consensus view is that Colombia is experiencing a rightward shift driven by dissatisfaction with President Gustavo Petro's administration. Petro's approval sits around 37%, with disapproval at 56%. Markets are pricing the possibility that anti-Petro backlash will consolidate behind de la Espriella, whose rise mirrors Rodolfo Hernández's 2022 surge and echoes Javier Milei's 2023 victory in Argentina. The recent convergence to a 37%/37% tie suggests traders believe the momentum has shifted decisively toward de la Espriella, with Cepeda's alleged "dirty campaign" complaints potentially signaling weakness.
Polling vs. Prediction Markets
December 2025 Invamer polling shows Cepeda at 31.9% versus de la Espriella at 18.2%, a 13-point gap. This represents the widest divergence between polling and prediction markets in this race. Traders may be pricing in anti-Petro momentum, potential scandal developments, or simply overweighting de la Espriella's media presence and social media virality. However, Colombia's polling has historically been reasonably accurate, and the gap between declared voting intentions and market pricing represents a significant anomaly.
Runoff Simulations
Head-to-head polling shows Cepeda defeating de la Espriella 51.7% to 38.9% in a runoff scenario. Colombia's two-round system historically favors candidates who can consolidate broader coalitions in the second round. Notably, Fajardo would also defeat de la Espriella by the same margin, suggesting centrist and left-of-center voters would consolidate against the far-right candidate regardless of which progressive makes the runoff.
Right-Wing Fragmentation Update
Six right-wing leaders have formed the Gran Consulta por Colombia coalition, agreeing to participate in an interparty primary on March 8, 2026. Participants include journalist Vicky Dávila and other traditional conservative figures. Critically, de la Espriella has declined to join, choosing to run as an independent through his Defensores de la Patria movement. This split could scatter the right-wing vote in the first round, potentially allowing Cepeda to advance with a plurality. Meanwhile, the Centro Democrático party remains in crisis, with its candidates collectively polling below the margin of error.
--• 3. The Alpha
Position: Cepeda Remains Undervalued
| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Market Price | 37% | | Fair Value Estimate | 42-47% | | Edge | +5-10 percentage points (BUY YES) |
Fair Value Methodology
December polling shows Cepeda at approximately 32% first-round support, nearly double de la Espriella's 18%. Adjusting for Historic Pact organizational advantages, runoff consolidation patterns, and historical precedent of outsider candidates fading (Hernández lost the 2022 runoff 47.3% to 50.4% despite strong first-round momentum), fair value lands in the 42-47% range. The market's dead-heat pricing ignores a 13-point polling lead and favorable runoff math. The widening gap between polling fundamentals and market pricing supports a fair value ceiling of 47%.
Why Markets May Be Wrong
Right-Wing Split Deepens: De la Espriella's refusal to join the Gran Consulta primary creates a genuine risk that the right-wing vote splits between him and whoever emerges from the coalition. This mirrors 2022, when the traditional right failed to make the runoff, replaced by outsider Rodolfo Hernández. If both de la Espriella and a Gran Consulta candidate remain competitive, Cepeda could advance to the runoff with a smaller first-round plurality than polls currently suggest, but with a clearer path to victory.
Congressional Infrastructure: De la Espriella's Defensores de la Patria movement has zero congressional representation, while the Historic Pact holds 20 Senate seats and 28 in the Chamber of Deputies. This translates into ground game, voter mobilization, and governing capacity that markets consistently underweight in favor of media momentum.
Runoff Math: As noted in the runoff simulations above, Cepeda holds a decisive advantage in head-to-head matchups. The centrist vote, currently scattered among Fajardo, Claudia López, and others, historically consolidates against far-right candidates in the second round. This pattern held in 2022 when Petro defeated Hernández despite the latter's anti-establishment momentum.
"Dirty Campaign" Narrative: Cepeda's allegations of state intelligence agencies working against him could cut both ways. Short-term, it may explain his recent market decline as traders price in scandal risk. However, if the allegations are substantiated, it could generate a sympathy backlash and reinforce the narrative of establishment forces targeting progressive candidates. Cepeda declared himself "invincible in the moral terrain," suggesting confidence in weathering any opposition research.
Risk Factors
Scandal Materialization: The 6-point drop in Cepeda's market price may reflect insider knowledge of forthcoming negative information. His preemptive allegations of a "dirty campaign" could be positioning ahead of damaging revelations. Monitor news flow closely for any concrete accusations beyond the general claims made so far.
Roy Barreras Momentum: Barreras' 5-point surge to 9% suggests some traders see him as a potential alternative within the progressive coalition. If Historic Pact unity fractures, Cepeda's consolidation advantages erode. However, Barreras polled at only 0.6% in the November Invamer survey, suggesting his market movement may be speculative rather than fundamentally driven.
Security Deterioration: De la Espriella's hardline security message, modeled on El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, could gain traction if violence escalates. Some 81% of Colombians say maintaining strong US relations is essential, and Petro's confrontational approach to Washington has created an opening for candidates promising restoration of that relationship.
--• 4. Bottom Line
Recommendation: BUY Cepeda YES at 37 cents Timeframe: Hold through March 8 congressional elections and Gran Consulta primary
Market pricing has converged to a statistical tie despite unchanged fundamentals. Cepeda maintains a double-digit polling lead, wins runoff simulations decisively, and benefits from organizational infrastructure that de la Espriella entirely lacks. The right-wing's continued fragmentation strengthens rather than weakens the case for Cepeda's eventual victory.
Position Management: The "dirty campaign" allegations warrant monitoring. If concrete scandal information emerges that damages Cepeda's standing in traditional polls, reassess. Absent fundamental deterioration, the current market dislocation represents opportunity.
Key Catalyst: March 8, 2026. The congressional elections and Gran Consulta primary will clarify whether the right can unify or remains fragmented. If de la Espriella underperforms while a coalition winner emerges with momentum, market pricing could shift dramatically.
--• 5. Market Implications
The outcome of Colombia's 2026 election carries meaningful implications for regional asset allocation. A Cepeda victory would signal continuity with Petro's policies, including continued restrictions on oil and gas exploration, expanded social spending, and a cautious relationship with Washington. A de la Espriella administration would likely reverse course on energy policy, pursue Bukele-style security measures, and seek to restore US relations. The key transmission mechanisms to watch are Colombian sovereign debt spreads, energy sector exposure (Ecopetrol and related equities), and broader LatAm political risk sentiment. The March 8 primaries will provide the first concrete signal on direction, likely reducing the current elevated uncertainty around Colombian-specific exposure.