Summary: Digital asset exchange Gemini has officially launched its prediction markets platform across all 50 U.S. states, marking a major milestone for regulated event-based trading. The rollout follows a five-year regulatory journey and positions Gemini alongside Kalshi and Polymarket in a three-player market dynamic.
Gemini Launches Nationwide Prediction Markets After CFTC Approval
New York — December 17, 2025 — Digital asset exchange Gemini has officially launched its prediction markets platform nationwide in the United States, marking a significant development in the evolution of regulated event-based trading and the U.S. crypto ecosystem. The rollout follows a years-long regulatory effort and positions Gemini at the forefront of a burgeoning segment that combines market speculation with real-world forecasting.
Gemini's offering, branded Gemini Predictions™, is now live across all 50 U.S. states. The platform enables users to trade event contracts: binary positions tied to the outcomes of future real-world events. These contracts are structured as simple "yes/no" outcomes, with payouts contingent on whether a specified event occurs. Examples may include questions about macroeconomic data, financial markets, or high-profile social benchmarks.
The service is available via both the web and iOS apps, with Android support anticipated soon. At launch, Gemini has waived trading fees as an introductory incentive for its user base.
A Five-Year Regulatory Journey
The nationwide launch concludes a regulatory process that began in March 2020, when Gemini filed for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). After more than five years of review, the CFTC finally granted approval in December 2025, authorizing Gemini's affiliate, Gemini Titan, LLC, to operate a regulated prediction market platform in the United States.
This regulatory milestone is noteworthy in an environment where crypto innovation has often clashed with federal oversight. According to Gemini's leadership, supportive stances from current regulators were a contributing factor in securing the license, permitting the exchange to compete directly with existing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, both of which have established significant volumes in event-based contracts.
How Gemini Predictions Works
Gemini Predictions is conceptually similar to traditional derivatives markets but structured around probabilistic outcomes rather than price movements of securities or commodities. Users hold U.S. dollar balances in their Gemini accounts and commit capital to positions based on their forecast of an event's likelihood. Successful positions yield fixed payouts, while unsuccessful ones result in losses of the staked amount.
Platforms like Gemini emphasize that these markets can aggregate collective insights — often referred to as the wisdom of the crowd — providing real-time probability signals that may reflect broader expectations on economic, political, or sector-specific events faster than traditional forecasting instruments.
Gemini's iteration stresses near-instant execution and full transparency of contracts and settlement conditions — central tenets of the exchange's broader messaging around trust and regulatory compliance.
Strategic Fit in Gemini's Broader Product Ecosystem
The prediction markets product arrives as part of Gemini's long-term strategy to build what it terms a "financial super app." In addition to crypto trading and custody, Gemini already offers products such as staking, stablecoin yields, tokenized stock trading, and its own credit card rewards ecosystem. The addition of prediction markets aims to deepen user engagement by combining speculative tools with broader financial services.
By integrating prediction markets with its existing suite, Gemini hopes to retain users within its platform for a wider range of activities, potentially increasing lifetime customer value. Importantly, this strategy contrasts with earlier phases of the crypto industry, which often required users to spread activity across multiple specialized platforms.
Market Context: A Race to Standardize Event Trading
Gemini's nationwide rollout occurs amid a broader shift in the financial landscape that recognizes prediction markets as a legitimate asset class rather than mere wagering mechanisms. Over the past two years, platforms like Kalshi have demonstrated the appetite among retail and institutional traders for event contracts, driving tens of billions in monthly volume on topics ranging from financial indicators to sports and even cultural milestones.
Despite lingering comparisons to gambling, regulatory classification from bodies like the CFTC — particularly following landmark decisions around platforms such as Kalshi — has reframed prediction markets as commodities derivatives. This change has facilitated their scaling and cross-state accessibility without the jurisdictional complexity of state-level gambling laws.
The Three-Player Dynamic
Gemini's entry intensifies competition in this space, forming a three-player dynamic alongside Kalshi and Polymarket:
• Kalshi — Established market depth and regulatory track record • Polymarket — Brand recognition among crypto-native users • Gemini — Regulated status and expansive user base from existing exchange operations
Looking Ahead: Beyond Event Contracts
Gemini has hinted that prediction markets may represent just the first phase of a broader derivatives strategy. Discussions around expanding into additional products including crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts indicate that Gemini seeks to offer a comprehensive toolkit for traders of varying sophistication.
This potential expansion would further align Gemini with traditional financial exchanges that provide a full suite of derivative instruments, blurring the lines between conventional markets and crypto-native infrastructure.
--• In summary, Gemini's nationwide launch of its prediction markets service marks a key milestone not only for the exchange but for the broader acceptance of regulated event trading in the United States. Backed by CFTC oversight and integrated into a growing suite of financial tools, the platform sets the stage for increased mainstream participation and competitive innovation in the prediction markets space.