Summary: Argentina's October 26, 2025 legislative elections delivered a decisive victory for President Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party, yet prediction markets tell a more nuanced story than the headlines suggest. While media outlets celebrated Milei's "triumph" and his party's leap to second-largest bloc in Congress, the real analytical opportunity lies in understanding why Polymarket odds haven't reached certainty—and what that discount reveals about political risk pricing. This analysis examines the market mechanics behind Argentina's post-election uncertainty, breaking down the factors that keep a seemingly "settled" outcome trading at 81% rather than 100%.
What Really Happened in Argentina’s Midterms? Argentina just held its midterm elections, and the results are pretty interesting for anyone watching the political and markets scene. Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), went from a small player to becoming the second-largest group in Congress with 30-35 seats. That’s a big jump and strengthens Milei’s chances to push his agendas, dollarization and deregulation.
But the big Peronist coalition, Unión por la Patria (UP), still holds the most seats—about 95-100. So while Milei’s party gained momentum, they still need help to get things done. Big news outlets are calling this a win for Milei, but when you dig into the numbers, it’s clear that things aren’t completely settled—especially for those betting on prediction markets.
The vote counting went smoothly with no reported issues on election night. However, Argentina has an extra step after the votes: something called “definitive scrutiny,” which is a judicial check that can take weeks and sometimes flips close races.
Why Prediction Markets Aren’t 100% Sure Yet As of November 9, prediction markets like Polymarket give Unión por la Patria about an 82% chance of holding onto the largest number of seats, with LLA at 14%. That 18% gap from total certainty might seem weird, but there are good reasons for it.
Here’s why odds aren’t locked in yet:
The official results take time. Markets wait for the final certification when lawmakers officially take their seats. The judicial review can lead to recounts or legal challenges that sometimes change the outcome.
People hedge their bets. Traders tend to keep a little margin for surprises—legal battles, seat disputes, or even lawmakers switching sides.
Time matters in trading. Since it might be weeks before everything is official, traders factor in the risk and the waiting period, which keeps the odds a bit conservative.
Interestingly, when the market asks “which party wins the most seats” instead of “who keeps the plurality,” Milei’s party shows higher odds because they clearly gained a chunk of seats. So how a question is framed can shift how the market prices an event.
What This Market Tells Us About Information and Speculation Prediction markets aren’t just betting platforms—they aggregate information from people who are in-touch with the local politics and legal system. That’s why the 82% chance isn’t just about the vote count but also about all the procedural steps left before everything's official.
If you know more than the average trader about:
How long the scrutiny process usually takes
Which seat results might still be overturned
How coalitions might shift after the vote
then this market could offer a real edge. The 82% odds on UP holding plurality look attractive for confident traders, but with a chance for surprises too.
Risks and What Could Change the Odds? Here are some scenarios that could shift the betting lines:
Good news for UP (Strengthening the 82% odds): If all goes smoothly with the scrutiny and the coalition locks in support early, expect the odds to climb closer to certainty.
Good news for LLA: If any recounts, challenges, or party defections happen, the underdog’s odds could jump.
A clearer timeline: If the government announces when certification will happen, markets will likely react with more confident odds.
Until the official results are finalized, we can expect some volatility and trading opportunities.
What This Means for Political Traders The 82% odds are not "wrong" —they reflect the reality that even if things look settled, politics and markets don’t close the book until the last vote is certified.
This kind of multi-step process isn't unique to Argentina—it’s common in complex political markets. The size of the “certainty discount” tells you how much the market respects the risks of delayed or contested results.
As December nears and certification happens, expect odds to move sharply towards 95%+ For anyone tracking smart money, this is a reminder that markets keep pricing every stage of an event, not just the headline news. In politics, it’s never over until it’s officially over.