Summary: The Kalshi market prices Timothée Chalamet at 77% for Best Actor. After sweeping Critics Choice and Golden Globe, historical precedent suggests those odds are conservative. Here is the trade setup, the precursor data, and why the competition cannot close the gap.
Why Betting on Timothée Chalamet at 77% Is the Smartest Oscar Play
The Kalshi market for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars prices Timothée Chalamet at 77% to win for Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio sits at 10%, Michael B. Jordan at 9%. Those odds aren't generous, but they're also not high enough.
When an actor sweeps Critics Choice and Golden Globe, betting against them is how you lose money. Chalamet's coronation on March 15 is about as close to locked as awards season gets, and 77% odds on a 90%+ probability is still a smart bet.
!Kalshi Best Actor Market • Chalamet at 77%
--• Why the 77% Odds Are Actually Conservative
Chalamet's performance in Marty Supreme is earning the kind of reviews that win Oscars. The film holds 94% on Rotten Tomatoes across 334 critics. IndieWire called it "one of the most colossal movie performances of the 21st century." Critics are comparing him to young Al Pacino and Dustin Hoffman. This is more than just a good buzz, it's the vocabulary of an Oscar winner.
The film itself landed 9 Oscar nominations including Best Picture, giving Chalamet the platform he needs. At 30, he's already the youngest male actor to score three Oscar nominations, making history even before winning. If he takes the trophy, he'll be the second-youngest Best Actor winner ever behind Adrien Brody. The Academy loves a "young genius finally gets recognized" narrative, and Chalamet's giving them exactly that story.
His campaign is working because he's not hiding his ambition. The paddle-shaped purse at the premiere, the viral marketing meeting video where he suggests painting the Statue of Liberty orange, crashing actual table tennis tournaments, his "I want to be one of the greats" speech that everyone quotes. He's weaponized the character's drive for greatness into his own Oscar pursuit, and voters are eating it up. This is how you win campaigns.
--• The Precursor Sweep That Matters
On January 5, Chalamet won Best Actor at the Critics Choice Awards, beating DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Joel Edgerton, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura. One week later on January 11, he won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, again beating DiCaprio, George Clooney, and the same field. That's two major precursor wins in seven days.
Here's why that matters: the Critics Choice and Golden Globe combo is historically predictive. When an actor wins both, the Oscar usually follows. It signals consensus across different voting bodies, critics and Hollywood Foreign Press, creating momentum that's hard to stop. The next major test is the Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) on March 1, where Chalamet is nominated against DiCaprio, Hawke, Jordan, and Jesse Plemons.
If Chalamet wins SAG on March 1, the Oscar on March 15 is a formality. The trifecta of Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG has an extremely strong correlation with the Academy Award. Even if he loses SAG, the momentum from the first two wins plus his dominant campaign gives him the edge. The odds should probably be closer to 85-90% based on historical precedent, not 77%.
--• Why the Competition Isn't Close
Leonardo DiCaprio delivered a great performance in One Battle After Another, but he's facing several problems. First, he already has an Oscar for The Revenant. The Academy makes actors wait for their second win unless the performance is transcendent. Second, One Battle is an ensemble film with seven SAG nominations including multiple supporting actors. The attention is spread across the cast, not concentrated on DiCaprio alone. Third, he's not campaigning with the hunger Chalamet is showing.
Michael B. Jordan's Sinners is a vampire horror film that earned strong reviews and box office, but this is his first Oscar nomination. The Academy rarely gives Best Actor to a first-time nominee in a genre film. Wagner Moura won at Cannes for The Secret Agent and got critical acclaim, but SAG shut out all foreign-language performances this year, signaling the domestic voting body isn't ready to embrace him. Ethan Hawke is respected but Blue Moon only got two Oscar nominations total.
The field is weak precisely because Chalamet is strong. When one performance dominates the conversation from October through February, voters consolidate around the frontrunner. The $147 million box office for Marty Supreme, the TikTok fancams, the cultural phenomenon around the film, all point to Chalamet winning by acclamation, not by squeaking through a divided field.
--• The Trade
Buy Chalamet at 77¢ on the Kalshi Best Actor market. Risk is 23¢ per contract if he loses. Payout is 23¢ profit if he wins, which represents a 30% return in 35 days. Annualized, that's over 300% returns on what's functionally a near-certain outcome.
Position sizing: 3-5% of capital. This is higher than typical because the risk is low. You're getting paid 30% to bet on the overwhelming favorite with historical precedent on your side.
Exit strategy: If DiCaprio wins SAG on March 1, reassess immediately. A SAG upset would cut Chalamet's probability significantly and you'd want to exit before the Oscar. Otherwise, hold through March 15.
Timeline: Critics Choice won (Jan 5), Golden Globe won (Jan 11), SAG voting happening now through March 1, Oscar ceremony March 15. The path is clear and the checkboxes are getting ticked.
The DiCaprio Hedge
If you want to hedge your position or just diversify risk, buying Leonardo DiCaprio at 10¢ makes sense as a small secondary bet. The One Battle After Another campaign is strong with the film winning four Golden Globes including Best Picture and landing a record seven SAG nominations. If DiCaprio pulls off a SAG upset on March 1, his Oscar odds would spike from 10% to 40%+ overnight. A $100 bet at 10¢ costs $10 and pays $90 profit if DiCaprio wins. You could put 80% of your position on Chalamet at 77¢ and 20% on DiCaprio at 10¢ for an asymmetric risk-reward profile.
--• Bottom Line
When the favorite wins Critics Choice and Golden Globe seven days apart, you don't fade them, you back them. Chalamet at 77% is mispriced, just not in the direction people usually look for. It should be 85-90% based on the precursor wins and weak competition. Betting 77¢ to make 23¢ in five weeks is a 30% return on a near-lock. Sometimes the boring bet on the obvious outcome is the smartest play.
--• Disclaimer: This is analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets involve risk. Past award correlations don't guarantee future results. Only bet what you can afford to lose. The Oscars are March 15, 2026.