Summary: The December 31 market at 4% is dead money, but it reveals why June 30, 2026 at 77% represents the real opportunity in Tesla FSD prediction markets.
Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving launch by December 31, 2025 contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket.
!Tesla FSD Polymarket Prices
With just 8 days remaining, this is almost certainly a dead market. The Dec 31 market isn't interesting because it might resolve Yes. It's interesting because it reveals exactly why the June 30, 2026 market at 77% is mispriced. Everyone's staring at the 4% asking "is this free money?" when they should be asking "why is June only 77%?"
Tesla just removed safety monitors on December 14. Two of three resolution criteria are met, but the third one • 'broadly accessible' is the critical gating requirement. They won't make it, but the progress is real. And the market pricing June at only 77% (17% higher than March's 60%) shows the market is starting to update on execution progress.
Why December 31 Won't Hit, But Shows Where to Look
December 31 will most likely resolve No. At 4¢ with 8 days left and $902,945 volume (from when odds were better), it's dead money.
Resolution Criteria:
• Label it "Full Self-Driving Unsupervised" • Yes • Operate without human driver on public roads • Yes (done on Dec 14) • "Broadly accessible" via public service • No
Two of three cleared on December 14. But "broadly accessible" requires a public app, paying riders, scaled fleet, not just validation testing. Even Elon's "three weeks from Dec 10" timeline was for validation completion, not public launch.
So yes, Dec 31 is dead, but it suggests a possible pattern shift. Tesla hit a near-term milestone on schedule for the first time in nine years of FSD promises. June 30 at 77% hasn't fully priced in this new execution credibility.
Why June 30 Is the Right Market
Three Tesla FSD markets:
| Deadline | Probability | Volume | Time Left | |----------|-------------|--------|-----------| | December 31, 2025 | 4% | $902,945 | 8 days | | March 31, 2026 | 60% | $35,412 | 3.5 months | | June 30, 2026 | 77% | $137,241 | 6.5 months |
That 17% March to June spread is significant. Market now says: "Extra three months adds real value for engineering timeline."
June has 4x March's liquidity. Smart money flows to later dates with meaningful odds increase. They're betting on realistic engineering timelines, not Elon's aggressive promises.
December 14: The Signal Everyone Missed
Dec 31 won't hit, but it proved Tesla can execute near-term. Musk said "three weeks" on Dec 10. Safety monitors removed Dec 14 (four days later). For the first time in nine years he underpromised and overdelivered.
Empty Model Ys now navigate Austin with no occupants. Two of three resolution criteria cleared. The market, anchored on Elon's credibility gap, is slowly updating for this execution shift.
The December progress signals something for June. If Tesla went from "monitors required" to "no occupants" in under a week, what happens in six months?
The Boy Who Cried FSD
Elon's FSD promise history is brutal:
• 2015: "Autonomous cars in three years" • 2016: "Complete autonomy in approximately two years" • 2019: "Very confident" of robotaxis by 2020 • 2020-2025: Annual end-of-year promises, annual misses • 2023: Calls himself "the boy who cried FSD" in admission of failures
This track record is exactly why June 30 trades at 77% instead of 90%+. The Elon Credibility Discount is real, priced in, and massive.
But December 14 broke the pattern. For the first time, Musk gave a near-term timeline ("about three weeks") and Tesla beat it. Market muscle memory of "Elon always misses" is preventing traders from fully updating priors for this execution shift.
The Technical Data Shows Real Progress
FSD v14.1 Performance Leap:
• Miles between critical disengagements: 441 → 9,200+ miles (20x improvement) • Piper Sandler: "biggest sequential improvement in four years" • One Model 3 owner: 1,136 consecutive miles without intervention
Austin Robotaxi Safety:
• 7 incidents in ~280,000 miles = ~40,000 miles between crashes • Waymo: 98,600 miles between crashes • Human drivers: ~500,000 miles between crashes
Tesla isn't beating Waymo. But resolution criteria doesn't require it.
Note: Safety metrics use different reporting standards and aren't directly comparable.
They just need "broadly accessible" unsupervised operation. The 20x improvement in v14 suggests something fundamental shifted in the architecture.
What "Broadly Accessible" Actually Means
Resolution requires public robotaxi service or vehicle feature or software update. Critically, it doesn't specify minimum vehicle counts, geographic coverage, ride volumes, or safety standards.
Most Likely Path to Yes:
• 50-100 driverless robotaxis in Austin • Public app for booking • 200-500 rides per week • Geofenced to downtown (10-20 square miles) • Open to public (even with waitlist)
Does this qualify as 'broadly accessible'? More likely. It's a public service, accessible via app, operating unsupervised. Limited capacity doesn't negate "broadly accessible" — Waymo started exactly this way.
The key insight is that the resolution bar is way lower than "successful product" or "Waymo competitor." Tesla just needs minimally viable public robotaxi service in one city.
March 31 vs June 30: Why June Wins Despite Opportunity Cost
| Deadline | Probability | Price | Volume | |----------|-------------|-------|--------| | March 31 | 60% | 61¢ | $35,412 | | June 30 | 77% | 78¢ | $137,241 |
If Tesla launches by March, both win, but June locks capital for three extra months. That is ~$200-300 opportunity cost if you could reinvest March winnings. So why choose June?
1. You Still Win If March Hits. June shares still resolve to $1 if Tesla launches in March. You just wait longer. The only cost is foregone reinvestment opportunity, not loss of principal.
2. 4x Better Liquidity. March's $35K orderbook means slippage on any meaningful trade. June's $137K lets you execute properly.
3. Engineering Timeline Points to Q2
• Dec-Jan: Driverless validation testing • Jan-Feb: Larger FSD model deployment • Feb-Mar: Scale fleet, expand geofence • Mar-Apr: Internal beta with Tesla employees • Apr-May: Limited public beta • May-June: Public launch
Every milestone pushes toward Q2. March assumes perfect execution. June accounts for reality.
4. The 17% Spread properly prices three months. March to June adds 25% more time and 17% more probability. The market is now recognizing the value of additional development time.
What Could Go Wrong
• Resolution interpretation: "Broadly accessible" might require Waymo-like scale, not 100 Austin rides/week. • Safety incident: One bad crash triggers regulatory pause. Already 7 incidents in 280k miles with monitors. • Geofence limits: Scaling beyond specific Austin routes to true "broad access" takes time. • Track record: Nine years of missed deadlines. The 23% "No" probability exists for a reason. • Performance stagnation: FSD v13 plateaued at ~495 miles between disengagement. If v14 does the same, reliability suffers.
Trade Idea
Buy June 30 Yes at 78¢.
| Parameter | Value | |-----------|-------| | Position | Buy Yes at ~78¢ | | Size | 2-3% of capital | | Risk/Reward | 78¢ risk for 22¢ gain |
Thesis: Market may still underprice the true probability of Tesla launching by June 30. The market has updated significantly from 68% to 77%, but if you believe the true probability is 80-85%, this offers positive expected value.
Why This Works Despite Modest Risk/Reward: Unlike asymmetric longshot bets, this is a high-probability value play. You're not betting on a miracle, you're betting the market is still partially anchored on Elon's historical misses while underweighting recent execution progress.
Key Catalysts:
• Jan 2026: Larger FSD model rollout, fleet expansion beyond 31 vehicles • Feb-Mar: Safety data from driverless testing, geofence expansion within Austin • Apr-May: Public beta launch announcement, first paying riders • June: Official public service confirmation
Entry Strategy:
• Full position now if high conviction on 80%+ true probability • Scale in: 50% now, 25% if dips to 70¢, final 25% in February if thesis remains intact • Do not chase above 82¢ — At that point, remaining edge is minimal
Risk Management:
• Exit below 65¢ • Implies <65% probability, thesis invalidated by safety incident or major delay announcement • Take profits above 85¢ • Market front-running launch, limited upside remains • If March resolves Yes: Accept opportunity cost and hold until June 30 • Monitor safety incidents: Any incident requiring monitor reinstatement = immediate exit
The Bottom Line
The December 31 market at 4% teaches us that Tesla can hit near-term milestones (safety monitors removed on time). But 8 days isn't enough for "broadly accessible" public service.
June 30 at 77% is the real opportunity. The market has updated from 68% but may still be underpricing the probability given December 14 execution.
You don't need Waymo-scale deployment. You need 50-100 robotaxis doing 200+ paid rides weekly in Austin. That's a six-month engineering problem with a demonstrated milestone already cleared on December 14.
The market is giving you 0.28:1 odds on an outcome where the hardest technical work is done and you have 6.5 months to scale. This is what value looks like when you're betting on high-probability mispricing rather than asymmetric longshots.
--• Disclaimer: Educational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk. Only invest capital you can afford to lose.