| Market | Probability | Rating | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 84% | BB | $66.5M |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 96% | BBB | $41.7M |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 96% | A | $38.6M |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 97% | BBB | $35.5M |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 84% | BB | $27.6M |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 94% | BBB | $26.0M |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 92% | BBB | $21.5M |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 95% | BBB | $21.3M |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 92% | BB | $18.3M |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 97% | BBB | $17.6M |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 78% | B | $16.4M |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 97% | BBB | $15.5M |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 82% | BB | $15.2M |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 98% | BBB | $14.6M |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 96% | BBB | $13.8M |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 87% | BB | $13.6M |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 96% | BBB | $13.4M |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 92% | BB | $13.3M |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 98% | BBB | $13.2M |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 84% | BB | $12.9M |
Live prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated in real time. Markets are rated AAA through C using bond-style methodology.