Top Prediction Markets — Polymarket & Kalshi

MarketProbabilityRatingVolume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 83% BB $58.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 96% BBB $39.6M
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? 96% BBB $36.8M
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? 96% BBB $35.3M
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 82% BB $26.7M
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? 94% BBB $24.6M
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? 93% BBB $18.7M
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 90% BBB $17.7M
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 97% BBB $17.2M
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 78% B $15.3M
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 97% BBB $15.2M
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 97% BBB $14.4M
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 85% B $14.2M
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 98% BBB $13.9M
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 98% BBB $13.2M
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 90% BBB $12.9M
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 92% BBB $12.9M
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 98% BBB $12.9M
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 84% BB $12.6M
Xi Jinping out before 2027? 95% BBB $12.0M

Live prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated in real time. Markets are rated AAA through C using bond-style methodology.