Fed Rate Hold Odds Ease as Soft Labor Data Boosts March Cut Expectations

February 5, 2026 · flowframe Pulse

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March dipped after a batch of weak employment data, including the highest January job cuts since 2009 and a significant miss in ADP private payrolls. These reports have revived concerns about an economic slowdown, prompting traders to increase bets that the central bank may resume its easing cycle at the March 18 meeting. The market shift reflects a growing sentiment that a cooling labor market could override the Fed's previous preference for a policy pause.

90¢ → 87¢ • Vol: $6.8M

Source: https://flowframe.xyz/pulse/fed-rate-hold-odds-ease-as-soft-labor-data-boosts-march-cut-expectations-f9080b

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