Political Risk Prediction Markets

Political risk markets price the probability of domestic policy decisions, legislative outcomes, executive actions, and personnel changes across the U.S. government. These markets are particularly sensitive to congressional votes, Supreme Court decisions, and White House policy announcements.

FlowFrame tracks political risk markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, integrating speech analysis from the Mentions Hub — which indexes transcripts from Trump, Congress, the Fed, and other key officials — to identify when market prices may be ahead of or behind public statements.