2026 Midterm Election Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections — House, Senate, and Governor primary races across all 50 states. Prices update in real time as traders buy and sell contracts on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange.
| Race | State | Leading Candidate | Market Odds | 24h Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor winner? | In 2026 | - | 0% | $517K |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? | In 2026 | - | 37% | $57K |
| California Governor matchup? | Jun 2026 | - | 0% | $38K |
| NJ-11 special election margin of victory? (Higher strikes) | On Apr 16, 2026 | - | 0% | $29K |
| California governor primary: Steve Hilton vote percent | Vote Percent - Steve Hilton | - | 2% | $25K |
| Maine Democratic Senate nominee? | In 2026 | - | 0% | $23K |
| CA-30 primary: Who will advance? | CA-30 | - | 93% | $22K |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Person) | In 2026 | - | 0% | $22K |
| CA-16 primary: Who will advance? | CA-16 | - | 12% | $18K |
| GA-11 Republican nominee? | GA-11 (R) | - | 31% | $13K |
| CA-49 primary: Who will advance? | CA-49 | - | 95% | $10K |
| Texas Senate winner? | In 2026 | - | 55% | $9K |
| Kansas Senate winner? | In 2026 | - | 73% | $9K |
| Ohio Senate winner? (Special) | In 2026 | - | 38% | $9K |
| California governor primary: 2nd place | On Jun 2, 2026 | - | 0% | $8K |
| Alabama Republican Senate nominee? | In 2026 | - | 90% | $7K |
| Florida Republican Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 82% | $6K |
| CA-14 primary: Who will advance? | CA-14 | - | 5% | $6K |
| CA-38 primary: Who will advance? | CA-38 | - | 56% | $6K |
| California Governor primary advancers? (Party) | In 2026 | - | 14% | $6K |
| CA-34 primary: Who will advance? | CA-34 | - | 91% | $5K |
| How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026? | Before Nov 3, 2026 | - | 3% | $5K |
| California Governor primary: 1st place | On Jun 2, 2026 | - | 0% | $4K |
| Ohio Republican Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 0% | $4K |
| Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 49% | $4K |
| Kansas Republican Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 1% | $3K |
| CA-09 primary: Who will advance? | CA-09 | - | 97% | $3K |
| Colorado Democratic Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 67% | $3K |
| Michigan Republican Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 1% | $3K |
| Oregon Republican Governor nominee? | In 2026 | - | 43% | $3K |
What Are 2026 Midterm Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets let traders stake real money on political outcomes, turning polling data, insider knowledge, and public sentiment into a single probability score. When you see 67% next to a candidate, the market collectively prices their probability of winning at that moment. FlowFrame aggregates every 2026 Kalshi election contract in one place, updated continuously throughout the primary season.
How to Read the Odds
Each market shows candidates ranked by market-implied probability. The leading probability percentage is derived from the best bid price on Kalshi's order book. The multiplier (e.g., 1.47x) is the implied payout if that candidate wins: a 68% favorite pays 1.47x; a 1% longshot pays 100x. Volume reflects cumulative dollars traded — higher volume indicates a more liquid, reliable signal.
Key Senate Races to Watch in 2026
The 2026 cycle puts 33 Senate seats in play. Historically competitive states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are priced as toss-ups where small news events move prices sharply. See the most active senate contracts on the Kalshi markets page.
Governor Races and State-Level Markets
Gubernatorial elections matter beyond their own cycle — governors control redistricting and election administration, and are often the next cycle's Senate candidates. Kalshi lists governor contracts across states with competitive primaries.
How FlowFrame's View Is Different
Most political data sites show polling averages. FlowFrame shows where money is moving. Prediction markets update in real time — a debate gaffe, an indictment, or a leaked poll can move prices within minutes. Combined with FlowFrame's Mentions Hub (political speech transcript search) and the live Polymarket dashboard, you get a multi-signal view no single source provides.