Smart Money Skew — Where Top Polymarket Traders Are Positioned
Smart Money Skew is a quantitative signal that tracks the open positions of the top 30 Polymarket traders ranked by 30-day profit and loss. By aggregating their dollar-weighted directional exposure across every active market, FlowFrame surfaces markets where informed capital is disproportionately concentrated on one side relative to the current market price.
The composite skew score weights three trader tiers: Sharp traders (rank 1–10, carrying 60% of the composite weight), Skilled traders (rank 11–20, 30% weight), and Active traders (rank 21–30, 10% weight). The resulting edge signal — Implied Fair Value minus current YES price — quantifies how far the market price diverges from where smart money implies it should trade.
A +20% edge on a market trading at 50¢ means top traders' positioning implies a 70% probability — a meaningful divergence that has historically preceded price corrections toward the informed view. Data refreshes every 20 minutes from the Polymarket CLOB and position APIs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the composite skew calculated?
The composite skew is a dollar-weighted average: 0.6 × sharp_skew + 0.3 × profitable_skew + 0.1 × recreational_skew. Each tier's skew is (yes_dollars − no_dollars) / (yes_dollars + no_dollars), ranging from −1 (all money on NO) to +1 (all money on YES). Implied fair value is then computed by shifting the market price in log-odds space by the composite skew (sensitivity = 0.75 log-odds units), capping any single-signal adjustment at roughly 15–18 percentage points near mid-range markets and less at extremes.
Where does trader ranking data come from?
Trader rankings are sourced from predicting.top, which tracks on-chain Polymarket wallet performance over rolling 30-day windows. FlowFrame uses the top 30 wallets by P&L as of each 20-minute refresh cycle.
What is the minimum position size filter?
Small positions under $250–$500 may represent exploratory or low-conviction trades. The minimum position filter excludes markets where sharp traders' total committed capital falls below the selected threshold, surfacing only markets with meaningful skin in the game.
Does this cover Kalshi markets?
Currently Smart Money Skew covers Polymarket only. A Kalshi equivalent is planned for a future release.