Prediction Market Blog | flowframe

In-depth trade breakdowns, market research, and quantitative analysis of opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi.

• California Governor 2026: The Becerra Surge Has Overshot Fair Value

  The market repriced Xavier Becerra from 50 cents to 61 cents in the 48 hours after Eric Swalwell exited the race on May 17, 2026, treating the Swalwell departure as a clean transfer of Democratic primary support to Becerra and ignoring the more durable fact pattern that arrived in the same week.

  May 23, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Iowa Republican governor primary: Kalshi is overpaying for Feenstra

  Kalshi prices Randy Feenstra in the mid-to-high 70s. The data says he is closer to a coin flip.

  May 23, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Maine Senate 2026: BUY NO at 30 Cents

  Kalshi prices Democrats to win the Maine Senate race at 71% YES. A five-factor model — polling baseline, Collins overperformance discount, midterm wave, Platner biographical risk, and ranked-choice redistribution — sets fair value at 58% YES. BUY NO at 30 cents, edge +13pp, sized small (25%).

  May 21, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Trump's Coast Guard Academy Speech Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump delivers the Coast Guard Academy commencement Wednesday morning. Kalshi's word board has "Hottest" at 69%, "Hormuz" at 60%, and "Long Blue Line" at 46%.

  May 19, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Swalwell, Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus-McCormick Out as Representatives? Term Structure Mispricing on a Single-Member Question

  Kalshi's three-contract House departure series has reduced to a single referendum on Cory Mills after three of four legs already resolved YES. The market prices Mills' exit at 19/29/68% across June, July, and November deadlines; we model fair value at 5/12/42%. BUY NO across the curve, with the November contract sized Full at +21 points of edge.

  May 10, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• SCOTUS AI Copyright Cert Grant: BUY NO at 24 cents

  Kalshi's "Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law" trades at 24 cents YES. Working fair value is 7% based on three sequential pipelines (Doe 1 v. GitHub, Raw Story v. OpenAI, Thomson Reuters v. ROSS) plus a surprise term. Edge is 17pp before Rule 6.3(c) drag, 16pp after. Small NO position recommended.

  May 6, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Musk v. Altman: the contract mechanics traders might be getting wrong

  Polymarket's Musk v. Altman main contract trades at 35¢ after a 26% drop over the past month. Most traders are reading the wrong part of the resolution rules. Fair value is 45-55¢, and the trade is positive across the entire 40-55% probability range.

  May 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Political-Operational Divergence in Iran War Prediction Markets

  Iran's prediction markets have split into two clusters moving in opposite directions: political contracts pricing declarations and announcements, and operational contracts pricing ship counts and infrastructure. They are running on different clocks, and the decoupling is now visible in real time.

  April 28, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Oregon Governor Race: Three Republicans walk into a primary. One is the clear favorite. The other two aren't leaving.

  Christine Drazan leads Kalshi's Oregon Republican Governor primary market at 76%, with Ed Diehl at 18% and Chris Dudley at 10%. The only public poll confirms the spread — but 30% of voters are still undecided three weeks out.

  April 27, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Trump's Correspondents' Dinner Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump attends the WHCD for the first time as president. Kalshi's word board has "Truth" at 69%, "Peace" at 58%, and "Movie Star" at 61%. Here's the full cheat s

  April 24, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• The Longest Reschedule in History Might Finally Be Happening

  The White House has told federal agencies to prepare for imminent marijuana rescheduling. Kalshi's market jumped — "Before July 2026" hit 37%, up from 18% yesterday. Here's what the odds mean and why it's taken 56 years.

  April 23, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• The California Governor Debate Word Market: The Four-Way Cheat Sheet

  California's governor debate is Wednesday. Kalshi has word markets on Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco. We put all four boards side by side.

  April 20, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Taiwan Recognition: A 10-to-1 Mispricing

  The Kalshi contract on US recognition of Taiwan is priced at 19% YES. Fair value is 2%. A sequential decomposition across three binding conditions — equilibrium break, Trump execution, Taipei cooperation — yields a 1.08% mechanical estimate, calibrated upward to 2pp. The position survives 4x perturbation on the binding condition with 10pp of edge remaining.

  April 19, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• California Governor 2026: Two Trades Worth Taking

  Eric Swalwell suspended and Steyer shot to 66¢ on Kalshi. That move is too aggressive. Here are the two trades worth taking: Steyer NO at 34¢ and Porter YES at 11¢.

  April 16, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Who Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General?

  Pam Bondi was fired after 14 months. Lee Zeldin is the frontrunner at 50¢, Todd Blanche is the acting AG at 24¢ — and slightly overpriced. Here's what the market is saying and where the edge is.

  April 15, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• California Governor Race: Tom Steyer Just Went From Afterthought to Frontrunner in Five Days

  Eric Swalwell dropped out after sexual assault allegations. Tom Steyer surged from 15% to 53% on Kalshi in five days. Here's what the chart tells you about California's craziest governor's race.

  April 13, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Iowa's Governor Race Just Got Interesting. Here's What Kalshi Thinks.

  Kalshi has Iowa's GOP governor primary at Feenstra 69%, Steen 16%, Lahn 16%. Cook just moved the general to tossup. Here's why the primary suddenly matters — and what's making Feenstra's lead drift.

  April 12, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Bernie's NYC Rally Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Bernie Sanders and NYC Mayor Mamdani are rallying about AI and jobs Saturday. Polymarket's word board has AI at 91%, Musk at 90%, and Robot at 87%. The full cheat sheet.

  April 11, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Trump's Fox News Interview Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump sits down with Fox News on Sunday, six days into the Iran ceasefire. Kalshi's word board has "Ceasefire" at 88%, "Obliterate" at 49%, and "Peace" at 43%.

  April 10, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Republican Senate Primaries Combo: Hold at 50¢

  The Kalshi Republican Senate primaries combo market trades at 50 cents with a YES fair value of 47-49%. Six candidates across Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, and Minnesota divide into a strong block and a genuinely contested block. No actionable edge at current prices — full attention on May 16 and May 26.

  April 8, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber