Prediction Market Blog | flowframe

In-depth trade breakdowns, market research, and quantitative analysis of opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi.

• Musk v. Altman: the contract mechanics traders might be getting wrong

  Polymarket's Musk v. Altman main contract trades at 35¢ after a 26% drop over the past month. Most traders are reading the wrong part of the resolution rules. Fair value is 45-55¢, and the trade is positive across the entire 40-55% probability range.

  May 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Political-Operational Divergence in Iran War Prediction Markets

  Iran's prediction markets have split into two clusters moving in opposite directions: political contracts pricing declarations and announcements, and operational contracts pricing ship counts and infrastructure. They are running on different clocks, and the decoupling is now visible in real time.

  April 28, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Oregon Governor Race: Three Republicans walk into a primary. One is the clear favorite. The other two aren't leaving.

  Christine Drazan leads Kalshi's Oregon Republican Governor primary market at 76%, with Ed Diehl at 18% and Chris Dudley at 10%. The only public poll confirms the spread — but 30% of voters are still undecided three weeks out.

  April 27, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Trump's Correspondents' Dinner Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump attends the WHCD for the first time as president. Kalshi's word board has "Truth" at 69%, "Peace" at 58%, and "Movie Star" at 61%. Here's the full cheat s

  April 24, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• The Longest Reschedule in History Might Finally Be Happening

  The White House has told federal agencies to prepare for imminent marijuana rescheduling. Kalshi's market jumped — "Before July 2026" hit 37%, up from 18% yesterday. Here's what the odds mean and why it's taken 56 years.

  April 23, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• The California Governor Debate Word Market: The Four-Way Cheat Sheet

  California's governor debate is Wednesday. Kalshi has word markets on Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco. We put all four boards side by side.

  April 20, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Taiwan Recognition: A 10-to-1 Mispricing

  The Kalshi contract on US recognition of Taiwan is priced at 19% YES. Fair value is 2%. A sequential decomposition across three binding conditions — equilibrium break, Trump execution, Taipei cooperation — yields a 1.08% mechanical estimate, calibrated upward to 2pp. The position survives 4x perturbation on the binding condition with 10pp of edge remaining.

  April 19, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• California Governor 2026: Two Trades Worth Taking

  Eric Swalwell suspended and Steyer shot to 66¢ on Kalshi. That move is too aggressive. Here are the two trades worth taking: Steyer NO at 34¢ and Porter YES at 11¢.

  April 16, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Who Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General?

  Pam Bondi was fired after 14 months. Lee Zeldin is the frontrunner at 50¢, Todd Blanche is the acting AG at 24¢ — and slightly overpriced. Here's what the market is saying and where the edge is.

  April 15, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• California Governor Race: Tom Steyer Just Went From Afterthought to Frontrunner in Five Days

  Eric Swalwell dropped out after sexual assault allegations. Tom Steyer surged from 15% to 53% on Kalshi in five days. Here's what the chart tells you about California's craziest governor's race.

  April 13, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Iowa's Governor Race Just Got Interesting. Here's What Kalshi Thinks.

  Kalshi has Iowa's GOP governor primary at Feenstra 69%, Steen 16%, Lahn 16%. Cook just moved the general to tossup. Here's why the primary suddenly matters — and what's making Feenstra's lead drift.

  April 12, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Bernie's NYC Rally Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Bernie Sanders and NYC Mayor Mamdani are rallying about AI and jobs Saturday. Polymarket's word board has AI at 91%, Musk at 90%, and Robot at 87%. The full cheat sheet.

  April 11, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Trump's Fox News Interview Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump sits down with Fox News on Sunday, six days into the Iran ceasefire. Kalshi's word board has "Ceasefire" at 88%, "Obliterate" at 49%, and "Peace" at 43%.

  April 10, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Republican Senate Primaries Combo: Hold at 50¢

  The Kalshi Republican Senate primaries combo market trades at 50 cents with a YES fair value of 47-49%. Six candidates across Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, and Minnesota divide into a strong block and a genuinely contested block. No actionable edge at current prices — full attention on May 16 and May 26.

  April 8, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Trump's NATO Bilateral Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump meets NATO's Rutte today after threatening to leave the alliance. Kalshi's word board has "UK/Starmer" at 76%, "Spain" at 53%, and "Greenland" at 27%.

  April 8, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Leavitt's Next Press Briefing Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  A ceasefire just changed everything. Kalshi's Leavitt briefing board has "Ceasefire" at 96% and "Pakistan" at 83%. Here's what the full word list reveals.

  April 8, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Will SCOTUS Bar Counting Mail Ballots After Election Day?

  The Kalshi market prices the Supreme Court barring post-Election Day mail ballot receipt at 60% YES. But the market has likely overreacted, failing to weigh the structural legal counterarguments that give Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett principled paths to NO. Fair value lands at 50–58% YES — a 3–11 point edge toward BUY NO at 39 cents.

  April 6, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Trump's Iran Press Conference Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump holds an Iran press conference Monday at 1 PM ET. Kalshi's 32-word board shows "Deal" at 92%, "Rescue" at 91%, and "Kharg Island" at 27%. The full cheat s

  April 6, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Nebraska's May 12 Primary: Done Deals, One House Flip Race, and the Most Elaborate Senate Spy Story of 2026

  Nebraska votes May 12. Most races are done deals -- but NE-02 could tip the House, and the Senate Democratic primary is the wildest political story in the country. Here's every Kalshi market and what it means.

  April 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• A US Jet Just Got Shot Down Over Iran. The Ground War Odds Spiked to 81%.

  An F-15E was shot down over central Iran this morning. Two crew members are missing. Polymarket's 'US forces enter Iran by April 30' contract surged to 81%, up 20 points, with $106M in total volume. Here's what it means.

  April 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma