Prediction Market Blog | flowframe
In-depth trade breakdowns, market research, and quantitative analysis of opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Trump's Fox News Interview Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Trump sits down with Fox News on Sunday, six days into the Iran ceasefire. Kalshi's word board has "Ceasefire" at 88%, "Obliterate" at 49%, and "Peace" at 43%.
April 10, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Republican Senate Primaries Combo: Hold at 50¢
The Kalshi Republican Senate primaries combo market trades at 50 cents with a YES fair value of 47-49%. Six candidates across Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, and Minnesota divide into a strong block and a genuinely contested block. No actionable edge at current prices — full attention on May 16 and May 26.
April 8, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- Trump's NATO Bilateral Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Trump meets NATO's Rutte today after threatening to leave the alliance. Kalshi's word board has "UK/Starmer" at 76%, "Spain" at 53%, and "Greenland" at 27%.
April 8, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Leavitt's Next Press Briefing Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
A ceasefire just changed everything. Kalshi's Leavitt briefing board has "Ceasefire" at 96% and "Pakistan" at 83%. Here's what the full word list reveals.
April 8, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Will SCOTUS Bar Counting Mail Ballots After Election Day?
The Kalshi market prices the Supreme Court barring post-Election Day mail ballot receipt at 60% YES. But the market has likely overreacted, failing to weigh the structural legal counterarguments that give Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett principled paths to NO. Fair value lands at 50–58% YES — a 3–11 point edge toward BUY NO at 39 cents.
April 6, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- Trump's Iran Press Conference Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Trump holds an Iran press conference Monday at 1 PM ET. Kalshi's 32-word board shows "Deal" at 92%, "Rescue" at 91%, and "Kharg Island" at 27%. The full cheat s
April 6, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Nebraska's May 12 Primary: Done Deals, One House Flip Race, and the Most Elaborate Senate Spy Story of 2026
Nebraska votes May 12. Most races are done deals -- but NE-02 could tip the House, and the Senate Democratic primary is the wildest political story in the country. Here's every Kalshi market and what it means.
April 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- A US Jet Just Got Shot Down Over Iran. The Ground War Odds Spiked to 81%.
An F-15E was shot down over central Iran this morning. Two crew members are missing. Polymarket's 'US forces enter Iran by April 30' contract surged to 81%, up 20 points, with $106M in total volume. Here's what it means.
April 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Trump's Easter Egg Roll Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Kalshi's Easter Egg Roll word market has 13,000 traders betting on whether Trump mentions Iran, Democrats, or Jesus at a children's event. The full board and an
April 2, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Leavitt's Turning Point Tour Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
This is the first stop on a five-campus tour honoring Charlie Kirk, TPUSA's founder who was assassinated at a campus event in September.
April 2, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- The Trump Cabinet Exit Odds, Ranked
Kalshi has a $2.4M live market on who leaves the Trump administration next. Gabbard at 56%, Bondi at 46%, Hegseth at 45%. Each one has a specific, escalating set of problems — and the war is the only thing keeping all three in place.
March 31, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Federal Gun Ban for Marijuana Users. The Government Is Still Overpriced at 21%
The Supreme Court hears United States v. Hemani. Five justices showed cross-ideological skepticism at oral arguments. Fair value for YES is 14% — the market at 21% is overpriced by 7 points.
March 29, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- The Houthis haven't pulled the trigger. The market thinks they might.
Polymarket gives 41% odds the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closes by April 30. If it does, combined with Hormuz, 30% of the world's seaborne oil is cut off — a scenario that has never happened in modern history.
March 29, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Netanyahu out by December: $81M at 46%
Polymarket has $81M trading on when Netanyahu leaves power. The Iran war dropped the December contract from 60% to 46%, but the election is still coming — and the coalition math is brutal.
March 29, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- The Ground War Odds Just Spiked
Four weeks into the air campaign against Iran, Polymarket traders are pricing a 63% chance U.S. forces enter Iran by April 30 — up 21 points. $37 million in volume. Here's what's driving the odds and what it means for markets.
March 27, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Oil. Iran. November. — The Prediction Market Map for Operation Epic Fury
Kharg Island is the throat. Hormuz is the shield. Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, five prediction markets — nuclear deal, Pahlavi, regime survival, conflict end date, and Senate control — are all pricing the same two chokepoints and one political clock.
March 21, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- The DHS Shutdown Is Now Day 33. Kalshi Traders Are Betting It Gets Much Worse.
DHS has been shut down for 33 days with no deal in sight. Kalshi traders have pushed the expected duration to 66 days — up 41 days since the market opened. TSA callout rates hit 55% in Houston. Airlines are already hurting. And the recession odds just hit their highest level since November.
March 19, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Durbin's Seat Is Up for Grabs — and Nobody Can Call It
The tightest Democratic primary in the country is one day away. Juliana Stratton and Raja Krishnamoorthi are deadlocked at 51/51 on Kalshi with $410K in volume traded. Here is what the prediction market is telling you — and why this race matters far beyond Illinois.
March 16, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- The Best Actor Race Just Flipped — Why Timothée Is Spiraling
Two months ago Timothée Chalamet had 86% odds on Kalshi. Today Michael B. Jordan leads 56-34. Here's how $12.5M in prediction market volume called the biggest Oscar reversal in years.
March 14, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- NY-18: Pat Ryan heads toward November with no serious Republican challenger
The prediction market for New York's 18th Congressional District prices a Democratic hold as the heavy favorite. The odds have not moved meaningfully since the contract opened.
March 14, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma