The Longest Reschedule in History Might Finally Be Happening
· By flowframe Staff
The White House has told federal agencies to prepare for imminent marijuana rescheduling. Kalshi's market jumped — "Before July 2026" hit 37%, up from 18% yesterday. Here's what the odds mean and why it's taken 56 years.
THE LONGEST RESCHEDULE IN HISTORY MIGHT FINALLY BE HAPPENING
Here's the timeline. Biden asked for a review in October 2022. HHS recommended Schedule III in August 2023. The DEA proposed the rule in May 2024. The hearing got canceled. The judge retired. The appeal stalled. Trump signed an executive order in December 2025 telling Bondi to "expeditiously" finish the job. Bondi said nothing publicly for four months.
The Washington Post reported this afternoon that the White House has told federal agencies to prepare for imminent rescheduling. Axios said action could come "as soon as Wednesday." MJBizDaily's sources said "today's the day" -- but cautioned there's "still some process ahead." The DEA is reportedly planning to announce a new administrative hearing on rescheduling.
Source: Kalshi -- "Will marijuana be rescheduled?" $5.75M volume.
Kalshi's market tells the story in four contracts:
- Before July 2026: 37% (up 19 points) - Before 2027: 63% (up 16 points) - Before 2028: 84% (up 15 points) - Before Jan 20, 2029: 86% (up 7 points)
Look at that chart. The green "Before 2028" line has been the market's consensus for months -- sitting between 70-85%, saying "yeah, it'll happen eventually." The orange "Before 2027" line was stuck around 45-50% for weeks. Then it ripped to 63% on today's news.
But the "Before July 2026" contract is the spicy one. At 37%, the market is saying there's roughly a one-in-three chance this gets done in the next ten weeks. Yesterday that number was closer to 18%.
"Wait, if the White House said today's the day, why is it only 37%?" -- you, probably.
Because "rescheduling" isn't a switch you flip. Even with the White House pushing, there's a process that has to play out.
WHY IT'S TAKEN 56 YEARS AND STILL ISN'T DONE 🏛️
"The president signed an executive order four months ago telling them to do this. Why hasn't it happened?" -- you, probably.
Three reasons, and they explain why the Kalshi odds are spread across four different time horizons instead of all piled on "before July."
1. The DEA has no judge.
The administrative law judge who was handling the case retired in August 2025. In his retirement notice, he wrote: "My retirement will leave the DEA with no Administrative Law Judge to hear this matter." They haven't replaced him. No judge means no hearing. No hearing means no final rule. The DEA reportedly plans to announce a new hearing process -- but scheduling that, finding a judge, and actually conducting proceedings takes time.
2. 48 Republican lawmakers are fighting it.
Twenty-two senators and 26 House members have formally urged the administration to abandon rescheduling. A leading prohibitionist group hired Bill Barr -- Trump's first-term AG -- to sue to reverse rescheduling if it goes through. A coalition of Republican state attorneys general says cannabis is "properly" Schedule I. Even if the DEA finalizes a rule, litigation could delay it for months or years.
3. Bondi was the bottleneck (and now she's gone).
Pam Bondi never said a word publicly about rescheduling. As Florida AG, she called medical marijuana "misleading." Her DOJ internally rescinded Biden's non-prosecution policy for marijuana possession. She was, by all accounts, slow-walking it. Then Trump fired her. Todd Blanche is now acting AG. The White House move today may be the administration working around the bottleneck that Bondi created.
What "imminent" actually means:
The most likely scenario, based on today's reporting: the DEA announces a new hearing process. That's the first concrete step. The hearing itself, plus post-hearing briefing, an ALJ recommendation, and a final rule could take months. Legal challenges add more time. The "Before 2027" contract at 63% feels about right for a realistic completion timeline. "Before July" at 37% is the "everything goes perfectly and nobody sues" scenario.
This is the biggest movement on the marijuana rescheduling market since Trump signed the executive order in December. The White House is pushing. Sources are saying "today's the day." But the gap between political announcement and legal reality has been the story of this process since 2022.
At 37% for "Before July," a YES contract pays 2.7x. At 63% for "Before 2027," it pays 1.6x. The risk-reward calculus depends on how much you trust the federal bureaucracy to move fast.
If you've been following this market: today is the most consequential day since the EO was signed. If you haven't: marijuana has been classified alongside heroin for 56 years. The president wants that to change. The question isn't whether anymore. It's when. And "when" just got a lot closer