The Open Championship Preview, can Scheffler Repeat?
· By Tyler Jacobsma
The Open Championship starts Thursday at Royal Birkdale. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champ and the favorite, but he's on a 13-event winless run and just missed his first cut since 2022
THE BOARD, AND THE MAN AT THE TOP OF IT ⛳ Scottie Scheffler is the defending Open champion, and he arrives at Royal Birkdale as the favorite trying to become the first back-to-back winner since Padraig Harrington in 2007-08 — and the first American to do it since Tiger Woods in 2005-06. Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, in scoring average, and in birdie average. He also won his first tournament of 2026 back in January and has come up short in the thirteen events since. He's coming into the final major of the year off his first missed cut since 2022, at the Scottish Open last week. The statistics say he is comfortably the best golfer alive. The results say he cannot close. Both things are true at the same time, and the market is trying to figure out which one matters more this week. Here's where the money sits on Kalshi heading into Thursday: | Player | Kalshi | Sportsbook | Notes | |--------|---:|---:|-------| | Scottie Scheffler | ~12.7% | +620 to +750 | Only golfer above 10% on Kalshi | | Rory McIlroy | 9.7% | +750 to +850 | Kalshi is the longer price | | Tommy Fleetwood | ~6% | +1400 to +1800 | Home crowd, model fade | | Matt Fitzpatrick | ~6% | +1500 to +2000 | Home crowd, real form | | Jon Rahm | ~4% | +2000 to +2200 | Still hunting a links major | | Xander Schauffele | ~4% | +2200 | 2024 Open champ | | Ludvig Åberg | ~3% | +2200 to +3300 | The model's dark horse | | Bryson DeChambeau | 1.8% | +5456 to +6000 | Missed all three major cuts | Scheffler is the only player on Kalshi's board above a 10% chance to win, with McIlroy sitting just behind at 9.7%. That's a remarkably flat board for a major, no runaway favorite, no clear second tier, just a long list of plausible winners. The absence of an overwhelming favorite is a testament to the quality of the field and how genuinely open this tournament is.
THE COURSE MAKES DISTANCE IRRELEVANT
Precision, and whatever the North Sea decides to do that morning. Royal Birkdale is one of the ten shortest courses in use on the entire 2026 PGA Tour schedule, which means driving distance barely factors into the equation. What the course does have is more than 100 bunkers, so precision is paramount. It's a par-70 with only two par-5s, and both of them come on the back nine. This is a golf course that takes the bombers' biggest weapon and quietly puts it back in the bag. That course profile has a lot of impact on the betting board. It's exactly why the models are fading Wyndham Clark despite his U.S. Open win, he ranks 83rd in driving accuracy and 65th in greens in regulation, which is a rough profile for a course with a hundred bunkers waiting for you. Links golf brings its own set of problems anyway: unpredictable weather, firm fairways, and deep pot bunkers that turn a decent drive into a lost half-hour. Then there's the weather. Forecasters are calling for scattered showers through much of the weekend, and adverse weather was a factor the last time the Open came to Royal Birkdale. That's the variable that turned a 12-under winning score into a 3-over one in the space of nine years. If the wind gets up, the entire board compresses and the grinders take over. If it stays calm, the number goes low and the shot-makers separate.
THE PLAYS: HOME CROWDS AND HOT HANDS Matt Fitzpatrick is the value name at the top of the second tier. His accuracy and strong putting translate exactly to what The Open demands, especially if the weather turns. He's a former U.S. Open champion, so the big-stage nerves aren't a question, and he's spent the season taking abuse from American crowds during his three wins. This week the gallery is finally on his side. At +1500 to +2000 he's the best combination of form, fit, and motivation on the board. Xander Schauffele is the proven links closer. He won The Open in 2024 at Royal Troon, and while his season hasn't been spectacular, his best results all came in the majors — T9 at the Masters, T7 at the PGA, T11 at the U.S. Open. He plays his best golf in the biggest moments and he isn't rattled by European courses. At +2200 that's a fair price for a guy who has already lifted this trophy. Ludvig Åberg is the model's dark horse and worth a look. SportsLine's model has him as a top-three contender on its projected leaderboard despite the fact that he's never won a major and sits at +2200 to +3300. He's been steady in the majors this year, headlined by a T4 at the PGA Championship, and he finished inside the top 25 here last year in what will only be his third Open appearance. Rory McIlroy deserves a mention for a reason we'll get to in a second. He's chasing his second Open, twelve years after his 2014 win, and a seventh career major would make him just the twelfth player ever to get there. The catch is his volatility at this event — three top-10s and three finishes of 46th or worse across his last six Open starts. He's either in contention on Sunday or he's nowhere. There's very little middle ground.
THE FADES: WHO TO AVOID Bryson DeChambeau is the clearest fade on the board, and the market already knows it. He's missed the cut in all three majors this year. SportsLine's Bearman was blunt about the numbers: DeChambeau was "downright awful at the last two majors, losing 2 shots on approach at the U.S. Open and 2.16 strokes to the field around the greens at the PGA Championship." He also hasn't played competitively since the U.S. Open, and as Bearman put it, "while making YouTube videos is fun and all, you have to ask yourself where his head is right now with the LIV future in question." He opened as short as +2800 at some books and has drifted all the way to +6000. He's on Kalshi at 1.8 cents. Even at that number, this is a pass rather than a value. Tommy Fleetwood is the uncomfortable fade, because the crowd will be roaring for him and the story writes itself. But the numbers don't cooperate. He's the third favorite on the board, yet SportsLine's model projects him to miss the top five entirely. He finished 27th the last time The Open came to Royal Birkdale, missed the cut in 2024, finished outside the top 10 last year, and has no finish better than T11 in any major this season. The home-crowd narrative is doing more work on his price than his golf is. Wyndham Clark won the U.S. Open last month, which is exactly why the market is overrating him here. His accuracy numbers — 83rd in driving accuracy, 65th in greens in regulation — are a terrible fit for a course defined by bunkers and precision. Recent-major-winner bias is real, and this is what it looks like.
THE PRICING QUIRK: THIS WEEK IT'S RORY Here's the wrinkle worth knowing if you're shopping venues. At the U.S. Open last month, the prediction market had the favorite priced notably longer than the sportsbooks, and buying Scheffler on Kalshi was a free upgrade. This week that edge has mostly closed on him. Kalshi has Scheffler around 12.7%, a $10 stake returns roughly $68.46 in profit — which lands squarely inside the +620 to +750 range the books are showing. No meaningful gap. The gap moved to McIlroy. Kalshi has him at 9.7%, with a $10 stake returning about $86.90 in profit — call it +869. The sportsbooks have him between +750 and +850. That's a real edge on the same bet, purely on venue, and it's the cleanest line-shopping play of the week.
THE READ The Open is the most weather-dependent major on the calendar, and Royal Birkdale is the most weather-dependent venue in the rotation. A fifteen-shot difference in winning score between 2008 and 2017 tells you everything about how little the pre-tournament board is worth once the wind decides what it wants to do. That's why the Kalshi board is so flat, nobody above 13%, no clear second tier, just a long ramp of contenders. Scheffler is the rightful favorite on his metrics and a genuinely uncomfortable one on his results. Thirteen straight events without a win and a missed cut last week is not the profile of a man about to go back-to-back, but he also has top-25 finishes in all five of his career Open starts and leads the tour in every stat that matters. Take the position, keep it modest. The better risk-adjusted plays are Fitzpatrick and Schauffele, proven major winners whose games fit a precision course, both priced in a range that pays properly. Åberg is the longshot with a decent track record behind him. And if you're backing Rory, buy him on Kalshi at roughly +869 rather than the +750 you'll get at the book. The tournament starts at 2 a.m. ET Thursday, which means American traders are either setting an alarm or waking up to a leaderboard that already happened. Set the alarm.