California Governor Race: Tom Steyer Just Went From Afterthought to Frontrunner in Five Days
· By Tyler Jacobsma
Eric Swalwell dropped out after sexual assault allegations. Tom Steyer surged from 15% to 53% on Kalshi in five days. Here's what the chart tells you about California's craziest governor's race.
California's jungle primary is June 2. The top two finishers -- regardless of party -- advance to the November general.
TOM STEYER JUST WENT FROM AFTERTHOUGHT TO FRONTRUNNER IN FIVE DAYS
A week ago, Eric Swalwell was the clear leader in the Democratic field. He had the labor endorsement, the anti-Trump lane, and close to 70% on Kalshi's primary advancement market. Tom Steyer was hovering around 15%.
Then the San Francisco Chronicle published allegations that Swalwell sexually assaulted a former staffer. By Friday, Pelosi told him to quit. Jeffries told him to quit. His campaign co-chair resigned. His PAC suspended operations. 55 former staffers signed a letter calling for his resignation from Congress. Today he dropped out.
And Steyer? He's sitting at 53% on Kalshi to win the whole thing.
Source: Kalshi — "California Governor winner?" $21.1M volume.*
Look at that chart. Steyer's green line was flat near the bottom for months. Then around April 10 -- the day the Chronicle story dropped -- it rips straight up to 53%. Katie Porter got a smaller bump, climbing to about 14%. Matt Mahan is in the mid-teens.
That's a 37-point swing in less than a week. For a guy most Californians still can't identify.
"How did a billionaire who ran a failed presidential campaign become the favorite?" -- you, probably.
Steyer has pumped at least $110 million into TV advertising. While every other Democrat was making fundraising calls and attending forums, Steyer was blanketing every screen in the state. Democratic consultant Steven Maviglio told the San Francisco Standard: "He's the only one who has the resources to communicate and run a real campaign."
That's why the prediction market moved to him so fast. When the frontrunner collapses eight weeks before a primary, the candidate with the most name recognition and the most money benefits first. Steyer has both.
Katie Porter (14%) got a bump too. She's the former congresswoman known for whiteboard takedowns. The California Federation of Labor added her as an endorsee after pulling their Swalwell backing. But she failed to win a Senate seat in 2024, and some strategists question whether she can close. UC Berkeley's Eric Schickler told the San Francisco Standard that Porter and Steyer are in the strongest position to capture Swalwell's voters -- but neither has locked anything up.
Here's a stat that might surprise you: Steyer went from 16% to 53% on Kalshi in five days. That's the fastest surge we've seen in any governor's race on any prediction market this cycle.
THE JUNGLE PRIMARY MATH IS STILL TERRIFYING FOR DEMOCRATS
"Steyer's the new frontrunner. Problem solved, right?"
Not even close. The jungle primary is the problem, and Steyer being at 53% on a winner market doesn't mean he's at 53% in the primary vote. Here's why Democrats are still panicking.
California uses a top-two system. Every candidate from every party runs in one primary. The top two finishers advance to November. That means Republican Steve Hilton -- who has Trump's endorsement and a consolidated GOP base -- is almost certainly advancing. Kalshi had him at 82% to make the top two before Swalwell even dropped out.
The danger: if six or seven Democrats split 60-65% of the primary vote while Hilton takes 20-25% and Sheriff Chad Bianco takes another 10-15%, two Republicans could finish in the top two. In California. The nightmare scenario that keeps Democratic strategists awake.
Steyer's money advantage is real but has limits. Garry South, a longtime California Democratic strategist, told CNN that Steyer is "wearing out his welcome" with the ad saturation. And Republican strategist Mike Madrid pointed out that Swalwell's lane was being the "most anti-Trump candidate" -- a lane Steyer hasn't occupied. "That's not going to happen now," Madrid said.
The endorsement vacuum hasn't been filled. Pelosi, Schiff, Padilla, Jeffries -- all pulled their Swalwell endorsements. None have re-endorsed. CNN reports that Democratic power brokers may try to consolidate behind one candidate. If they pick Steyer, his 53% goes higher. If they pick someone else -- or can't agree -- the field stays fractured.
The labor vote is split three ways. The California Federation of Labor now endorses Steyer, Porter, and Villaraigosa. A three-way labor endorsement doesn't move votes. It splits them. Which helps Hilton.
Steyer at 53% is the market saying he's the most likely winner -- but he's far from a lock. The chart tells the story: he's the beneficiary of Swalwell's collapse, not the product of his own momentum. His odds surged because the guy in front of him fell down, not because voters rallied to him.
The next two weeks will determine whether this holds. Watch for three things:
Does the Democratic establishment consolidate behind Steyer? If Pelosi and Schiff endorse him, 53% goes to 65%+. If they back Porter or stay neutral, the field stays fractured. Does anyone else drop out? If Becerra or Villaraigosa exit and endorse one candidate, the math narrows. Every dropout that doesn't happen increases the two-Republican risk. Polling. Prediction markets moved first. But Steyer's Kalshi surge hasn't been confirmed by polls yet. If post-Swalwell polls show Steyer pulling ahead in actual voter preference, the market was right. If polls show the field still fragmented, 53% is too high.
Eight weeks until the primary. $21 million traded. A billionaire in the lead. A disgraced congressman on the way out. And the real possibility that California Democrats blow it entirely.
This is the craziest governor's race in the country. And it just got crazier.