The Houthis haven't pulled the trigger. The market thinks they might.
· By Tyler Jacobsma
Polymarket gives 41% odds the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closes by April 30. If it does, combined with Hormuz, 30% of the world's seaborne oil is cut off — a scenario that has never happened in modern history.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open but traffic is "sharply reduced." The Houthis say their "fingers are on the trigger."
THE HOUTHIS HAVEN'T PULLED THE TRIGGER. THE MARKET THINKS THEY MIGHT.
You've heard about the Strait of Hormuz. It's been 95% closed for almost a month. Twenty percent of the world's oil normally flows through it.
Now meet the other chokepoint. The one that could turn a crisis into a catastrophe.
The Bab el-Mandeb is a 16-mile-wide strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. It's the only way into the Red Sea from the south, which means it's the only way to the Suez Canal. About 10% of global seaborne oil flows through it.
Polymarket traders give a 41% chance it gets effectively closed by April 30. And a 3% chance it happens by March 31.
Source: Polymarket -- "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by..?" $238K volume.
The March contract has collapsed -- down 37 points. Traders no longer expect it this week. But the April contract is sitting at 41%, which means: roughly a two-in-five chance that the world's second-most-important shipping chokepoint goes dark within a month.
"I've literally never heard of this strait. Why should I care?" -- you, probably.
Because if both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb close, roughly 30% of the world's seaborne oil is cut off simultaneously. That has never happened in modern history. Macquarie, the Australian investment bank, is warning of a 40% chance oil hits $200 per barrel by June if this scenario plays out. Oil has never been that high. Ever.
Here's why the odds aren't zero
The Houthis declared "Hour Zero" -- then waited.
On March 14, senior Houthi officials announced military alignment with Iran and declared "Hour Zero" for coordinated operations against the U.S. and Israel. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said his forces have their "fingers on the trigger, ready to respond at any moment."
A Houthi political bureau member told RIA Novosti that closing the Bab el-Mandeb is a "primary option" to support Iran. Any closure, he said, would target ships linked to countries attacking Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, or Iraq.
But they haven't actually fired. Not yet.
The Times reported on March 16 that the Houthis are waiting for an Iranian signal. If U.S. military actions weaken Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz -- say, by seizing Qeshm Island or Kharg Island -- the Houthis would launch as a second front.
Maersk already pulled out. Traffic is dropping.
Major container shipping lines aren't waiting for the first missile. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM have all paused "Trans-Suez" sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb, citing the "deteriorating security situation." This killed hopes that container shipping would return to the Red Sea in 2026 after the previous Houthi campaigns.
Windward's maritime intelligence shows Bab el-Mandeb traffic is "sharply reduced" even without a single shot being fired. The threat alone is enough to divert ships around Africa, adding 12-15 days and roughly $1 million in fuel costs per voyage.
Saudi Arabia's Plan B runs right through Houthi territory.
This is the part that makes strategists nervous. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia pivoted to exporting oil through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. About 30 tankers were tracked heading toward Yanbu to load crude.
Every single one of those tankers has to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asian buyers. About 75% of Saudi crude exports go to China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The tankers transit the strait twice -- once to pick up oil, once to deliver it.
That means roughly 30 tankers carrying Saudi crude are currently within Houthi strike range. If the Houthis fire, Saudi Arabia's backup plan for Hormuz disappears overnight.
Here's a stat that might surprise you: During the 2023-2024 Red Sea attacks, Houthi strikes caused a 90% decrease in container shipping through the Red Sea and disrupted $1 trillion in goods. And that was without a full closure.
THE $200 OIL SCENARIO
"Ok, so there's a 41% chance both straits close. What does $200 oil actually look like?" -- you, probably.
Nobody alive has ever seen it. The all-time record for Brent crude is $147, set in 2008. Here's what the double-chokepoint scenario means for real life:
Gas prices go past anything we've ever experienced. If oil doubles from here, gas goes from $3.58 to $6-7 at the pump. Maybe higher. California would be above $10. Driving becomes a genuine financial burden for millions of Americans.
The Fed's inflation problem becomes unsolvable. Kalshi's March CPI is already at 0.8%*. If oil hits $200, inflation could blow past 5% annualized. Rate cuts are off the table for the rest of 2026. Rate hikes come back into the conversation. The recession market, currently at 34%, would spike toward 50% or higher.
Global shipping costs explode. Every ship rerouting around Africa adds two weeks and a million dollars in fuel per voyage. That's not just oil -- it's everything. Electronics, car parts, food, clothing. The inflation from the 2023-2024 Houthi attacks took months to work through supply chains. A double-chokepoint closure would be worse.
The war escalation feedback loop. If the Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb, the U.S. would almost certainly bomb Yemen again. Trump already spent $1 billion bombing Houthis in 2025 before declaring a ceasefire. That ceasefire held until now. But a new bombing campaign would pull the U.S. into a second active front alongside the Iran war, stretching military resources and deepening the conflict.
But here's the other side: the Houthis have reasons not* to fire. They're in the middle of their own civil war. They don't want to provoke another U.S. bombing campaign while trying to consolidate control of Yemen. Their Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center told Lloyd's List last week there was "no cause for concern" about the strait. Dozens of tankers still transit every day.
The Houthi threat is a loaded gun sitting on the table. Both sides know it's there. Neither side knows exactly when -- or whether -- it gets picked up.
The Strait of Hormuz carried 20% of the world's oil. It's closed. The Bab el-Mandeb carries another 10%. It's still open, but barely. Polymarket gives a 41% chance it closes by April 30.
If Hormuz is the crisis, Bab el-Mandeb is the crisis multiplier. The Houthis are Iran's trump card (lowercase t). They haven't played it. But the research from RUSI suggests Tehran "may judge that the Houthi card is better held in reserve for later" -- meaning if the war escalates further, that card gets played.
Watch Trump's April 6 deadline on the Strait of Hormuz. If it passes without the strait reopening, the risk of escalation goes up. And escalation is exactly what would trigger the Houthis.
Two chokepoints. One region. Zero historical precedent for both closing at once. At 41%, the market is saying it's not likely -- but it's way too possible to ignore.