The Trump Cabinet Exit Odds, Ranked
· By Tyler Jacobsma
Kalshi has a $2.4M live market on who leaves the Trump administration next. Gabbard at 56%, Bondi at 46%, Hegseth at 45%. Each one has a specific, escalating set of problems — and the war is the only thing keeping all three in place.
Kristi Noem got fired on March 5. That was the shot across the bow. Now Kalshi has a live market on who's next -- and the odds say the top of Trump's national security team is unstable.
$2.4 million has been traded. Here are the top three:
Source: Kalshi -- "Who will leave the Trump administration this year?" $2.4M volume.
Tulsi Gabbard (DNI): 56%, down 8 points Pam Bondi (Attorney General): 46%, down 3 points Pete Hegseth (SecDef): 45%, down 1 point
All three are around 50% at the moment. But a month ago, Gabbard was above 60%. The Iran war brought her back from the brink -- just like it did for Netanyahu. Wartime reshuffles are rare. Peacetime? Different story.
"These are some of the most powerful people in government. Why are they on an exit watchlist?" -- you, probably.
Because each one has a specific, escalating set of problems. Let's go through them.
Tulsi Gabbard -- DNI (56%)
Gabbard is the favorite to leave, and the reasons keep stacking up.
In 2020, she gave a speech on the House floor calling a military strike on Iran "an illegal and unconstitutional act of war." In 2026, as the President's top intelligence advisor, she oversaw the intelligence that justified... a military strike on Iran. When Rep. Ami Bera asked her about the contradiction at a congressional hearing, she said she was required to "check those views at the door."
That answer didn't satisfy anyone. Democrats think she failed to warn Trump about the consequences of the war. Republicans -- including Laura Loomer, who called for her firing on March 24 -- are angry that her former interim chief of staff, Joe Kent, resigned and publicly said the war was unjustified.
The Georgia election office raid made it worse. Gabbard was on-site when the FBI seized 2020 election ballots in Fulton County. Former DNI Dennis Blair said he had "no idea" why a spy chief would be at a domestic election raid. Democrats on the intelligence committees demanded she explain herself.
A whistleblower complaint about her conduct has been held up for eight months. She revoked the security clearances of 37 officials tied to Obama and Biden-era intelligence assessments.
The war is the only thing keeping her in place. Once it ends -- or if it goes badly -- she's exposed.
Pam Bondi -- Attorney General (46%)
Bondi's problems are bipartisan. Democrats accuse her of weaponizing the DOJ with politically motivated indictments against Letitia James, James Comey, Jerome Powell, and John Bolton. Republicans are furious about the Epstein files.
The Epstein mess is particularly bad. Bondi released only about 2% of the total Epstein materials, redacted co-conspirator names, and accidentally published victims' full names and photographs -- violating the very transparency act she was supposed to enforce. When Rep. Thomas Massie (a Republican) asked how many Epstein accomplices she'd indicted, she responded: "The Dow is over 50,000 right now."
A judge described a DOJ brief signed by Bondi as containing "a level of vitriol more appropriate for a cable news talk show." She called Rep. Jamie Raskin a "washed up, loser lawyer" during a hearing. And a grand jury refused to indict six Democratic lawmakers her office charged for making a social media video.
Trump still calls her "a terrific person." He said the same thing about Noem until March 5.
Pete Hegseth -- Secretary of Defense (45%)
Hegseth is running a war with Iran while facing impeachment articles, allegations of war crimes in the Caribbean, and reports that military commanders told troops the war is "part of God's divine plan."
The Signal leak controversy from last year never fully went away. He fired the Army, Navy, and Air Force's top lawyers, saying they were "roadblocks." A judge blocked his attempt to strip a senator's military rank. He banned photographers from press briefings over "unflattering" photos. And he's holding monthly worship services at the Pentagon during business hours, which defense contractors say gives Christians preferential access.
Rep. Shri Thanedar filed impeachment articles against him in December. They went nowhere because Republicans control the House. But the controversy volume hasn't slowed down.
Like Gabbard, the war is his shield. You don't fire the Secretary of Defense during an active military operation. But the day Operation Epic Fury ends, the scrutiny intensifies.
Here's a stat that might surprise you:
Kristi Noem was fired after 55% of Americans -- including majorities in both parties -- approved of her removal. That's the precedent.
THE NOEM PRECEDENT AND WHY THIS MATTERS FOR MARKETS
"Fun gossip. But how does this affect my money?"
More than you'd think. Cabinet instability during a war creates policy uncertainty, and policy uncertainty moves markets.
A DNI exit changes the intelligence picture. If Gabbard leaves, Trump needs a new intelligence chief confirmed by the Senate. During a war. With a 53-47 majority and Democrats who will use the hearing to grill the nominee about the Iran war's intelligence justification. The confirmation fight alone creates weeks of uncertainty about whether the intelligence community is functioning.
An AG exit reopens the DOJ. Bondi's DOJ has been the instrument of Trump's political retribution strategy. If she leaves, whoever replaces her inherits dozens of active cases against Democratic figures. The transition creates a window where those cases stall, or get dropped quietly.
A SecDef exit during a war is the big one. If Hegseth leaves while Operation Epic Fury is active, it signals the war isn't going well. Markets would interpret it as escalation risk, not de-escalation. The S&P would sell off on the headline alone. Defense stocks might actually drop too, because a new SecDef could mean a strategy shift.
The Noem precedent matters. Trump fired Noem when her approval cratered and the DHS shutdown became politically toxic. The pattern: Trump keeps people until they become a liability bigger than the cost of replacing them. For Gabbard, that threshold is the war. For Bondi, it's Epstein. For Hegseth, it's everything.
All three contracts are hovering around 50%, which means the market thinks they probably survive 2026. But "probably" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Gabbard at 56% is basically a coin flip. And the war, which is currently protecting all three of them, won't last forever.
The key question: what happens when Operation Epic Fury ends? If it ends well, Trump takes a victory lap and might shuffle the cabinet from a position of strength. If it ends badly, someone takes the blame. Historically, that someone is never the president.
Watch the war timeline. Watch the Epstein hearings. And watch whether Trump starts saying "I barely know her" about anyone on this list. That's always the tell.