Who Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General?
· By Tyler Jacobsma
Pam Bondi was fired after 14 months. Lee Zeldin is the frontrunner at 50¢, Todd Blanche is the acting AG at 24¢ — and slightly overpriced. Here's what the market is saying and where the edge is.
Pam Bondi was fired on April 2, 2026, after 14 months as Attorney General, which is the shortest tenure in half a century. The real reason, per multiple sourced accounts, was Trump's frustration that she didn't prosecute his political enemies aggressively enough. Todd Blanche, Trump's former criminal defense attorney, is now serving as acting AG with no legal deadline to leave that role.
Trump has told associates he's in no hurry to pick a permanent replacement. That matters for how this market resolves, but more on that below.
A few things Trump clearly wants in the next AG: someone who will aggressively pursue political targets, who can defend the administration on TV, and who shows absolute loyalty. That profile matters when analyzing the candidates.
Zeldin is the frontrunner and the sourced reporting backs it up. CNN, the AP, and Fox News Digital all independently confirmed Trump has been privately discussing Zeldin for the role. Fox reported Trump met with Zeldin at the White House on April 1, the day before Bondi was fired, and the AG position came up. Trump has called him "our secret weapon." At the EPA, Zeldin delivered the largest deregulation package in the agency's history — exactly the aggressive execution style Trump is looking for.
His vulnerability is the Senate. He only needs to lose four Republican votes to fail confirmation, and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has drawn a hard line against any nominee who "excused the events of January 6." Zeldin voted against certifying the 2020 election. Whether that crosses Tillis's threshold is genuinely uncertain, but it's a real risk.
True probability: 45-55%. At 50¢, this is approximately fairly priced. There's a modest buy case on dips below 48¢. Not the market's biggest edge.
Blanche is the interesting one. He's currently running DOJ as acting AG, pitched himself to Trump for the permanent role in the hours after Bondi was fired, and Fox News sources called it "really Todd's role to lose."
The problem for YES holders: this market only pays out if Blanche gets Senate-confirmed. He can serve as acting AG indefinitely under federal law with no time limit. If Trump decides to avoid a bruising confirmation fight, Blanche could run DOJ for the rest of the term and these shares go to zero despite him literally being the Attorney General.
His confirmation headwinds are also severe. Tillis's January 6 red line applies directly to Blanche, who defended Trump in January 6-related legal matters. He also has active baggage from the Abrego Garcia case, where a federal judge may summon him to testify under oath about statements he made on Fox News.
True confirmation probability: 18-22%. At 24¢, this is mildly overpriced.