Prediction Market Blog | flowframe

In-depth trade breakdowns, market research, and quantitative analysis of opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi.

• 2026 US Open Betting Preview: Shinnecock Favors the Grinders Over the Bombers

  Shinnecock's wind and five-inch fescue make even par a winning score, and that compresses the board. We break down Scheffler as the rightful favorite, the grinder value plays in the finishing-position markets, and why Jon Rahm is the headline fade.

  June 16, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• The 23-Point Gap: How Polymarket and Kalshi Split on Trump's Iran Nuclear Deal

  Trump's June 11 Iran nuclear MOU sent Polymarket's deal market to 74% but Kalshi's to just 51%. We unpack the 23-point gap, why it comes down to the rules, and the trades that make sense at current prices.

  June 12, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• UFC Freedom 250: A Fight Card at the White House — and the Markets Behind It

  The UFC is building an octagon on the South Lawn of the White House for Freedom 250. We break down the markets: Topuria as a near-lock, the Pereira-Gane coin flip, and the wild novelty props around attendance, weather, and Trump.

  June 12, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• The World Cup Is Here and Prediction Markets Have Already Bet $2 Billion on It

  More than $3 billion has already traded on the 2026 World Cup before kickoff. We break down what the money says: Spain and France in a dead-heat at the top, where the dark-horse value hides, and the Golden Boot board.

  June 10, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• When Will Trump's Attorney General Pick Be Confirmed?

  A factor-by-factor fair-value breakdown of Kalshi's Todd Blanche attorney general confirmation ladder: why the headline bracket is roughly fair, why it's a catalyst trade rather than a level trade, and which Senate events open a clean edge.

  June 9, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• California Governor 2026: The Becerra Surge Has Overshot Fair Value

  The market repriced Xavier Becerra from 50 cents to 61 cents in the 48 hours after Eric Swalwell exited the race on May 17, 2026, treating the Swalwell departure as a clean transfer of Democratic primary support to Becerra and ignoring the more durable fact pattern that arrived in the same week.

  May 23, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Iowa Republican governor primary: Kalshi is overpaying for Feenstra

  Kalshi prices Randy Feenstra in the mid-to-high 70s. The data says he is closer to a coin flip.

  May 23, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Maine Senate 2026: BUY NO at 30 Cents

  Kalshi prices Democrats to win the Maine Senate race at 71% YES. A five-factor model — polling baseline, Collins overperformance discount, midterm wave, Platner biographical risk, and ranked-choice redistribution — sets fair value at 58% YES. BUY NO at 30 cents, edge +13pp, sized small (25%).

  May 21, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Trump's Coast Guard Academy Speech Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump delivers the Coast Guard Academy commencement Wednesday morning. Kalshi's word board has "Hottest" at 69%, "Hormuz" at 60%, and "Long Blue Line" at 46%.

  May 19, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Swalwell, Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus-McCormick Out as Representatives? Term Structure Mispricing on a Single-Member Question

  Kalshi's three-contract House departure series has reduced to a single referendum on Cory Mills after three of four legs already resolved YES. The market prices Mills' exit at 19/29/68% across June, July, and November deadlines; we model fair value at 5/12/42%. BUY NO across the curve, with the November contract sized Full at +21 points of edge.

  May 10, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• SCOTUS AI Copyright Cert Grant: BUY NO at 24 cents

  Kalshi's "Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law" trades at 24 cents YES. Working fair value is 7% based on three sequential pipelines (Doe 1 v. GitHub, Raw Story v. OpenAI, Thomson Reuters v. ROSS) plus a surprise term. Edge is 17pp before Rule 6.3(c) drag, 16pp after. Small NO position recommended.

  May 6, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Musk v. Altman: the contract mechanics traders might be getting wrong

  Polymarket's Musk v. Altman main contract trades at 35¢ after a 26% drop over the past month. Most traders are reading the wrong part of the resolution rules. Fair value is 45-55¢, and the trade is positive across the entire 40-55% probability range.

  May 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Political-Operational Divergence in Iran War Prediction Markets

  Iran's prediction markets have split into two clusters moving in opposite directions: political contracts pricing declarations and announcements, and operational contracts pricing ship counts and infrastructure. They are running on different clocks, and the decoupling is now visible in real time.

  April 28, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• Oregon Governor Race: Three Republicans walk into a primary. One is the clear favorite. The other two aren't leaving.

  Christine Drazan leads Kalshi's Oregon Republican Governor primary market at 76%, with Ed Diehl at 18% and Chris Dudley at 10%. The only public poll confirms the spread — but 30% of voters are still undecided three weeks out.

  April 27, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma

• Trump's Correspondents' Dinner Word Market: The Cheat Sheet

  Trump attends the WHCD for the first time as president. Kalshi's word board has "Truth" at 69%, "Peace" at 58%, and "Movie Star" at 61%. Here's the full cheat s

  April 24, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• The Longest Reschedule in History Might Finally Be Happening

  The White House has told federal agencies to prepare for imminent marijuana rescheduling. Kalshi's market jumped — "Before July 2026" hit 37%, up from 18% yesterday. Here's what the odds mean and why it's taken 56 years.

  April 23, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• The California Governor Debate Word Market: The Four-Way Cheat Sheet

  California's governor debate is Wednesday. Kalshi has word markets on Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco. We put all four boards side by side.

  April 20, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Taiwan Recognition: A 10-to-1 Mispricing

  The Kalshi contract on US recognition of Taiwan is priced at 19% YES. Fair value is 2%. A sequential decomposition across three binding conditions — equilibrium break, Trump execution, Taipei cooperation — yields a 1.08% mechanical estimate, calibrated upward to 2pp. The position survives 4x perturbation on the binding condition with 10pp of edge remaining.

  April 19, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber

• California Governor 2026: Two Trades Worth Taking

  Eric Swalwell suspended and Steyer shot to 66¢ on Kalshi. That move is too aggressive. Here are the two trades worth taking: Steyer NO at 34¢ and Porter YES at 11¢.

  April 16, 2026 · By flowframe Staff

• Who Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General?

  Pam Bondi was fired after 14 months. Lee Zeldin is the frontrunner at 50¢, Todd Blanche is the acting AG at 24¢ — and slightly overpriced. Here's what the market is saying and where the edge is.

  April 15, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma