Prediction Market Blog | flowframe
In-depth trade breakdowns, market research, and quantitative analysis of opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Taiwan Recognition: A 10-to-1 Mispricing
The Kalshi contract on US recognition of Taiwan is priced at 19% YES. Fair value is 2%. A sequential decomposition across three binding conditions — equilibrium break, Trump execution, Taipei cooperation — yields a 1.08% mechanical estimate, calibrated upward to 2pp. The position survives 4x perturbation on the binding condition with 10pp of edge remaining.
April 19, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- California Governor 2026: Two Trades Worth Taking
Eric Swalwell suspended and Steyer shot to 66¢ on Kalshi. That move is too aggressive. Here are the two trades worth taking: Steyer NO at 34¢ and Porter YES at 11¢.
April 16, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Who Will Be Trump's Next Attorney General?
Pam Bondi was fired after 14 months. Lee Zeldin is the frontrunner at 50¢, Todd Blanche is the acting AG at 24¢ — and slightly overpriced. Here's what the market is saying and where the edge is.
April 15, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- California Governor Race: Tom Steyer Just Went From Afterthought to Frontrunner in Five Days
Eric Swalwell dropped out after sexual assault allegations. Tom Steyer surged from 15% to 53% on Kalshi in five days. Here's what the chart tells you about California's craziest governor's race.
April 13, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Iowa's Governor Race Just Got Interesting. Here's What Kalshi Thinks.
Kalshi has Iowa's GOP governor primary at Feenstra 69%, Steen 16%, Lahn 16%. Cook just moved the general to tossup. Here's why the primary suddenly matters — and what's making Feenstra's lead drift.
April 12, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Bernie's NYC Rally Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Bernie Sanders and NYC Mayor Mamdani are rallying about AI and jobs Saturday. Polymarket's word board has AI at 91%, Musk at 90%, and Robot at 87%. The full cheat sheet.
April 11, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Trump's Fox News Interview Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Trump sits down with Fox News on Sunday, six days into the Iran ceasefire. Kalshi's word board has "Ceasefire" at 88%, "Obliterate" at 49%, and "Peace" at 43%.
April 10, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Republican Senate Primaries Combo: Hold at 50¢
The Kalshi Republican Senate primaries combo market trades at 50 cents with a YES fair value of 47-49%. Six candidates across Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, and Minnesota divide into a strong block and a genuinely contested block. No actionable edge at current prices — full attention on May 16 and May 26.
April 8, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- Trump's NATO Bilateral Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Trump meets NATO's Rutte today after threatening to leave the alliance. Kalshi's word board has "UK/Starmer" at 76%, "Spain" at 53%, and "Greenland" at 27%.
April 8, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Leavitt's Next Press Briefing Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
A ceasefire just changed everything. Kalshi's Leavitt briefing board has "Ceasefire" at 96% and "Pakistan" at 83%. Here's what the full word list reveals.
April 8, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Will SCOTUS Bar Counting Mail Ballots After Election Day?
The Kalshi market prices the Supreme Court barring post-Election Day mail ballot receipt at 60% YES. But the market has likely overreacted, failing to weigh the structural legal counterarguments that give Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett principled paths to NO. Fair value lands at 50–58% YES — a 3–11 point edge toward BUY NO at 39 cents.
April 6, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- Trump's Iran Press Conference Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Trump holds an Iran press conference Monday at 1 PM ET. Kalshi's 32-word board shows "Deal" at 92%, "Rescue" at 91%, and "Kharg Island" at 27%. The full cheat s
April 6, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Nebraska's May 12 Primary: Done Deals, One House Flip Race, and the Most Elaborate Senate Spy Story of 2026
Nebraska votes May 12. Most races are done deals -- but NE-02 could tip the House, and the Senate Democratic primary is the wildest political story in the country. Here's every Kalshi market and what it means.
April 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- A US Jet Just Got Shot Down Over Iran. The Ground War Odds Spiked to 81%.
An F-15E was shot down over central Iran this morning. Two crew members are missing. Polymarket's 'US forces enter Iran by April 30' contract surged to 81%, up 20 points, with $106M in total volume. Here's what it means.
April 3, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Trump's Easter Egg Roll Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
Kalshi's Easter Egg Roll word market has 13,000 traders betting on whether Trump mentions Iran, Democrats, or Jesus at a children's event. The full board and an
April 2, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- Leavitt's Turning Point Tour Word Market: The Cheat Sheet
This is the first stop on a five-campus tour honoring Charlie Kirk, TPUSA's founder who was assassinated at a campus event in September.
April 2, 2026 · By flowframe Staff
- The Trump Cabinet Exit Odds, Ranked
Kalshi has a $2.4M live market on who leaves the Trump administration next. Gabbard at 56%, Bondi at 46%, Hegseth at 45%. Each one has a specific, escalating set of problems — and the war is the only thing keeping all three in place.
March 31, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Federal Gun Ban for Marijuana Users. The Government Is Still Overpriced at 21%
The Supreme Court hears United States v. Hemani. Five justices showed cross-ideological skepticism at oral arguments. Fair value for YES is 14% — the market at 21% is overpriced by 7 points.
March 29, 2026 · By Tyler James Webber
- The Houthis haven't pulled the trigger. The market thinks they might.
Polymarket gives 41% odds the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closes by April 30. If it does, combined with Hormuz, 30% of the world's seaborne oil is cut off — a scenario that has never happened in modern history.
March 29, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma
- Netanyahu out by December: $81M at 46%
Polymarket has $81M trading on when Netanyahu leaves power. The Iran war dropped the December contract from 60% to 46%, but the election is still coming — and the coalition math is brutal.
March 29, 2026 · By Tyler Jacobsma