BLS labor cost revisions and ceasefire news pull 2026 Fed hold odds to 46%
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are reacting to BLS revisions and ceasefire chatter shaking the macro tape. Revised data shows Q1 unit labor costs grew just 1.8%, while oil prices eased on Lebanon peace hopes. The contract for the federal funds rate ending 2026 at a 3.75% upper bound is easing.
The price dipped from 54¢ to 46¢ on $0.5M in total volume. This means the market is now pricing roughly a 46% chance that the Fed holds its current target range through December. It's an 8.0% pull back from the no-change consensus that has dominated the trade since April.
Expectations for a hold crystallized in April after the March dot plot signaled only one cut for all of 2026. That logic held firm through May as sticky inflation and a transition to a new Fed chair kept the 3.75% ceiling as the favorite. Today's labor cost data suggests the floor for those rates isn't as solid.
Next week's May CPI release on June 10 is the next major hurdle to clear. After that, the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and its new Summary of Economic Projections will reveal if the central bank's leadership plans to pivot early.
--- The tape, as of 2026-06-04 13:42 UTC: Polymarket YES contracts on this market last printed at 46¢ — implied probability 46% — on $0.5M of cumulative volume. Move from prior reference: 54¢ to 46¢ (↓ 8.0%).
54¢ → 46¢ • Vol: $0.5M