Clarity Act odds climb as Senate Banking drops massive 309-page draft
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are reassessing the odds for a federal crypto framework following a breakthrough in Washington. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is finally out of the shadows after months of closed-door negotiation. It's a sharp change in momentum for a bill that spent the last quarter stuck in partisan gridlock.
Movement began after the Senate Banking Committee released the full 309-page draft of the bill on Tuesday. The updated text reveals a hard-fought compromise between Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks regarding stablecoin rewards in Section 404. They've opted to ban passive interest—a major concession to the banking lobby—while protecting activity-based incentives for payments and DeFi participation. This middle ground was enough to secure a public endorsement from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, effectively ending the stalemate that has persisted since January.
This legislative clarity drove the price from 54¢ to 59¢ as total volume hit $0.7M. While the deal is a step forward, the market is now pricing roughly a 59% chance of the act being signed into law in 2026. It's a measured response compared to the volatility seen earlier this spring. Traders clearly see progress but aren't ready to call a slam dunk before the committee vote.
The next hurdle is the official committee markup this Thursday, May 14. Watch for any last-minute amendments targeting the $10 billion cap on state-chartered issuers, as that could still trigger a walkout from banking-aligned Democrats. The momentum hinges entirely on getting a clean vote out of the Banking Committee on Thursday.
54¢ → 59¢ • Vol: $0.7M