Clarity Act Odds Rise as Senate Banking Moves Toward Historic Markup Notice
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are repricing the likelihood of a comprehensive US crypto regulatory framework as the "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?" contract rose on Friday. The modest appreciation reflects growing confidence that Senate leadership has resolved the final technical hurdles. This market captures shifting institutional expectations for the first federal market structure bill to clear the legislative finish line within the current session.
This uptick follows reporting from Eleanor Terrett that the Senate Banking Committee is preparing to notice a formal markup for the legislation as soon as tomorrow. Momentum accelerated after Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks finalized a bipartisan compromise on stablecoin yield language, which had stalled progress since January. Furthermore, White House digital assets adviser Patrick Witt confirmed the administration is targeting a July 4 signing to mark the country’s 250th anniversary.
The contract’s rise from 73¢ to 76¢ occurred alongside approximately $0.6M in total volume, signaling steady accumulation by proponents of the bill. The current price action means the market now implies a 76% probability of the act being signed into law by year-end. This 3.0% gain suggests traders are increasingly discounting the risk of a late-stage veto or a failure in the Senate Banking Committee.
All eyes now turn to the official markup notice from Chairman Tim Scott’s office, which would formally start the clock on a committee vote. A successful markup in mid-May is viewed as a prerequisite for hitting the White House’s July deadline. Traders should monitor for any eleventh-hour objections from banking lobby groups, whose concerns regarding potential deposit flight remain the last significant obstacle.
73¢ → 76¢ • Vol: $0.6M