Clarity Act ticks up as high-stakes Senate Banking markup begins
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are leaning into a breakthrough for U.S. crypto regulation this morning. As the Senate Banking Committee gathers for its first-ever formal markup of the Clarity Act, the mood is shifting from skepticism to cautious optimism. This isn't just another hearing. It's a procedural do-or-die for the most comprehensive market structure bill in years.
The movement follows the Tuesday release of a revised 309-page draft by Chairman Tim Scott and Senator Cynthia Lummis. A crucial compromise on stablecoin yields between Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks is the current engine, even as major banking groups like the ABA scramble to block it. Today's 10:30 a.m. executive session is the first time the bill has seen a formal vote after months of procedural slippage and dead-end negotiations.
We're seeing a steady lift from 64¢ to 68¢ on $0.8M of volume, which means the market is now pricing roughly a 68% chance of the bill becoming law. It's a calculated bet rather than a frenzy. Traders are pricing in a successful committee exit but leaving room for the ethics fight that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand warned could derail the full floor vote later this summer.
Watch the live results of the markup for any amendments that fracture the Tillis-Alsobrooks alliance. The real pressure is the calendar. If the bill doesn't clear the committee before the May 21 Memorial Day recess, the White House loses its shot at a July 4 presidential signature.
64¢ → 68¢ • Vol: $0.8M