GameStop bid for eBay loses steam as Cohen's financing math fails to add up
· flowframe Pulse
GameStop's plan to swallow an e-commerce giant four times its size is losing its luster on Polymarket. What started as a meme-fueled moonshot has quickly devolved into a math problem that bettors don't think Ryan Cohen can solve. The initial buzz is hitting the reality of a balance sheet that simply doesn't support a $55.5 billion price tag.
Skepticism peaked after Cohen's May 4 appearance on CNBC, where he repeatedly dodged Andrew Ross Sorkin's questions about a $17 billion funding gap. Even with a $20 billion commitment from TD Securities and $9.4 billion in cash, the math requires massive dilution or debt levels that would make a junk-bond king blush. Michael Burry added to the pressure by disclosing he exited his entire GameStop position, citing concerns over the deal's stability and Cohen's increasingly erratic public stunts.
Traders are voting with their capital as the contract price slid from 21¢ to 16¢ this week. That 5% dip represents a sharp pivot in sentiment, with the market now pricing roughly a 16% chance of the deal actually closing. It took $0.5M of volume to drive the move, suggesting that the initial believers are finding it harder to ignore the structural hurdles of a hostile takeover this size.
All eyes are on the eBay board as they wrap up their formal review of the unsolicited proposal. While Cohen is threatening a proxy fight if they decline, the next real indicator of his leverage will be the response from eBay's institutional shareholders. Traders are waiting for a formal SEC filing or a board rejection letter.
21¢ → 16¢ • Vol: $0.5M