Is the Fed actually going back to hikes in 2026?
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are suddenly hedging against a return to hawkishness as the 2026 rate hike contract ticks up from 40¢ to 47¢ today. This 7.5% move comes on the back of $1.4M in total volume, signaling a shift in the long-term outlook. The market was comfortable with a flat path, but that consensus is clearly fraying.
This morning's May non-farm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the clear catalyst. The economy added 245,000 jobs, which blew past the 180,000 consensus and forced a rethink of the easing cycle. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, suggesting that wage-push inflation isn't dead yet. Traders are reacting to the risk that the Fed's current restrictive stance still isn't doing enough to cool a labor market that refuses to quit. It's a classic hot-start Friday that has the tape moving aggressively.
The focus shifts to the May Consumer Price Index release scheduled for Wednesday, June 10. If the headline CPI number comes in hot alongside today's jobs data, expect those 47¢ odds to cross the 50¢ threshold. It will put immense pressure on Chair Powell's press conference the following week.
--- Snapshot Venue — Polymarket Timestamp — 2026-06-05 13:09 UTC YES last — 47¢ (47% implied) Move — 40¢ → 47¢ (↑ 7.5%) Volume — $1.4M
40¢ → 47¢ • Vol: $1.4M