Is the ninety dollar oil target slipping away?
· flowframe Pulse
Confidence that oil hits the ninety dollar mark this month is cooling on Polymarket as the trading window for May begins to close. The contract for a late-month price spike dipped from 81¢ to 78¢ over the recent session, representing a three percent pullback in trader sentiment. While the bulls held a firm grip on the narrative earlier in the week, the tape shows a distinct retreat. Total volume for this market has reached $0.7M as participants recalibrate their positions against softening physical demand. The odds are shifting as the calendar becomes the biggest enemy for a final May surge.
The main driver behind this retreat is a combination of hawkish central bank signals and disappointing inventory data. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, released May 22, showed that officials aren't convinced inflation is on a sustainable path. This "higher for longer" stance has boosted the dollar and dampened the outlook for energy demand. Simultaneously, the Energy Information Administration reported a surprise 2.1 million barrel build in U.S. gasoline stocks for the week ending May 17. Traders expected a drawdown ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, so the surplus hit the market hard. Analysts at JP Morgan point out that without a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or a fresh supply shock, the momentum for ninety dollars is stalling. The bulls are running out of excuses because the market doesn't have a clear trigger left.
The next catalyst arrives June 2 with the OPEC+ ministerial meeting. This virtual gathering determines if the cartel extends its current production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of the year. While the May contract expires before then, the chatter leading up to the meeting will dominate the tape. Traders are hunting for any hint of a policy shift that could either floor the price or trigger a deeper selloff as summer begins.
--- Snapshot Venue — Polymarket Timestamp — 2026-05-25 00:04 UTC YES last — 78¢ (78% implied) Move — 81¢ → 78¢ (↓ 3.0%) Volume — $0.7M
81¢ → 78¢ • Vol: $0.7M