Israel-Iran Action Odds Rise as Tehran Re-Closes Strait of Hormuz

April 19, 2026 · flowframe Pulse

The probability of Israeli military action rose to 11¢ after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly rejected a second round of peace talks in Pakistan. With the April 21 market deadline approaching, traders are reacting to heightened regional instability and Defense Minister Israel Katz’s directive for the IDF to maintain 'full force' readiness.

8¢ → 11¢ • Vol: $1.1M

Source: https://flowframe.xyz/pulse/israel-iran-action-odds-rise-as-tehran-re-closes-strait-of-hormuz-c9ff39

Explore FlowFrame:

  • Market Dashboard — AAA-C rated Polymarket & Kalshi markets
  • Whale Activity — Real-time large trade alerts
  • Mentions Hub — Political speech transcript search
  • Midterms 2026 — Live election market odds
  • Trader Leaderboard — Top Polymarket traders
  • Research Blog — More prediction market analysis
  • Newsletter — Daily market intelligence