Leaked Trump memorandum pushes US Iran nuclear deal odds toward certainty
· flowframe Pulse
On Polymarket, the smart money's betting on a handshake before the calendar turns. The market is now pricing roughly an 81% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, as the contract climbed from 78¢ on $1.5M in total volume. This move follows reports from Tehran that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's office is actively reviewing a "one-page memorandum" that outlines a path toward ending the enrichment standoff. It's the most momentum we've seen since Donald Trump's PBS interview where he claimed a breakthrough is imminent, suggesting those quiet sessions in Muscat between Steve Witkoff and Iranian diplomats are finally starting to pay off.
This three percent tick up isn't a frenzy, but it's a confident drift toward certainty. Traders aren't waiting for the photo op. They're watching the expiry of the old JCPOA terms and realizing both sides have run out of road. If Trump wants a "grand bargain" before the midterms, he's got to close this gap now. The real test comes when the official response to the Washington proposal drops. Watch for the June 12 deadline for the next round of Islamabad talks in Pakistan.
--- Market snapshot Venue ............ Polymarket Captured ......... 2026-05-26 18:52 UTC YES (last) ....... 81¢ (81% implied) Move ............. 78¢ → 81¢ (↑ 3.0%) Volume ........... $1.5M
78¢ → 81¢ • Vol: $1.5M