Never been closer — Araghchi tweet pushes Iran peace odds to 63¢
· flowframe Pulse
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed Friday that a final, agreed-upon text for a U.S.-Iran peace deal has been reached, causing the Polymarket contract for an August settlement to move. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi backed the news on X, claiming a memorandum of understanding "has never been closer." It's a massive shift for the permanent peace deal market today.
The tape reacted fast. The price rose by 5.0%, climbing from 57¢ to the current 63¢. With $1.2M in total volume, the market is now pricing roughly a 63% chance that these two nations actually bury the hatchet by August. It's not just a tick up; it's a serious bet that the diplomatic window hasn't slammed shut despite the recent naval blockade and missile strikes.
Context matters here because traders have been burned. Since the war started on February 28, several breakthroughs have dissolved into fresh missile strikes. Trump's threat to seize Kharg Island on Thursday almost killed the April ceasefire, but his subsequent pivot to claiming a deal was approved by Tehran's leadership changed the math. Earlier markets for a June 30 resolution had dipped to 16% as negotiations had stalled out completely in Islamabad today.
Watch Geneva this weekend. Officials suggest a signing could happen Sunday, just before the G7 summit begins in Evian on June 15. If Vice President JD Vance and Steve Witkoff actually arrive at the table, the August odds won't stay at 63¢ for long.
--- The tape, as of 2026-06-12 17:43 UTC: Polymarket YES contracts on this market last printed at 63¢ — implied probability 63% — on $1.2M of cumulative volume. Move from prior reference: 57¢ to 63¢ (↑ 5.0%).
57¢ → 63¢ • Vol: $1.2M