Oil bulls eye $115 as Hormuz blockade and Alberta fires squeeze supply
· flowframe Pulse
Traders on Polymarket are betting that the oil market's ceiling is about to blow off. The contract for crude hitting $115 by June's end just caught a bid, reflecting a growing fear that current supply shocks aren't just temporary blips. It's a bold target. But the math is shifting fast as geopolitical and environmental risks finally converge.
Reuters reports the move follows President Trump's May 11 rejection of an Iranian peace proposal, which effectively dashed hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With Goldman Sachs estimating a 14.5 million barrel-per-day disruption from the blockade, the market is bracing for physical scarcity. Tightening the vice further, wildfires in Alberta are currently inching within 20 kilometers of major oil sands sites, threatening another 200,000 barrels of daily output.
The contract climbed from 49¢ to 54¢ today, a 5.1% rise that saw $0.6M of volume wash through the order book. This move means the market is now pricing roughly a 54% chance for a $115 print. It's a sharp move for a target this far out of the money, showing that traders aren't just hedging—they're building high-conviction positions.
The next test arrives with the Beijing summit starting Wednesday, May 13. This is the last real diplomatic off-ramp for the Hormuz blockade before June. If the summit fails to produce a 72-hour reopening window for tankers, $115 becomes the baseline. Watch for marine tracking data on May 14 to see if any hulls actually move.
49¢ → 54¢ • Vol: $0.6M