OpenAI eyes $1T IPO as confidential SEC filing clears the runway
· flowframe Pulse
OpenAI is knocking on the door of the public markets, and Polymarket traders are buying the hype. The contract rose by 7.5% this week following reports that the AI giant has filed its confidential S-1 with regulators. It's a move that ends months of speculation and shifts the conversation from if to how much.
The momentum stems from legal and regulatory clarity. On May 22, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI submitted its draft prospectus to the SEC, targeting a September debut with the help of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. This follows a courtroom victory on May 20, where a judge tossed Elon Musk's lawsuit on a technicality. Investors are also benchmarking against rival Anthropic, which pulled in a massive $65 billion round on May 28. That deal valued the firm at $965 billion and set a new floor for the sector.
Action pushed the price from 76¢ to 84¢, meaning the market is now pricing an 84% chance that the closing cap will cross the trillion-dollar mark. Total volume hit $1.0M as liquidity follows the filing. Traders are betting on more than just Sam Altman; they're backing a sector-wide reset. If a private rival is worth $965 billion, a public OpenAI has room.
Keep an eye on the calendar for June 12. That's when Elon Musk's SpaceX, now essentially a proxy for AI appetite since its merger with xAI, is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq. If SpaceX manages its expected $1.75 trillion valuation, it'll clear the runway for OpenAI's September target. Watch for the official SEC price range.
--- MARKET SNAPSHOT — 2026-05-29 13:41 UTC Platform: Polymarket | YES: 76¢ → 84¢ (↑ 7.5%) | Volume: $1.0M | Implied probability: 84%
76¢ → 84¢ • Vol: $1.0M