Silver bugs bid up $120 moonshot as supply deficit bites
· flowframe Pulse
Silver bugs are finally getting some traction on Polymarket after years of waiting for a breakout. The bet on silver hitting $120 by the end of June just saw a modest bump in activity. It isn't a consensus view yet. The needle is starting to move as the metal clears long-term resistance levels.
The tape is moving without a clear headline, but underlying pressure comes from a massive structural deficit. The Silver Institute confirmed a shortfall of 215 million ounces, marking the fourth straight year of supply gaps. Traders are also tracking a potential short squeeze on the COMEX. Industrial demand for solar panels in China is outstripping available inventory, leading bulls like Keith Neumeyer to argue the metal is undervalued. While Citi analysts recently raised their targets, $120 remains an extreme outlier.
The contract climbed from 13¢ to 16¢, reflecting the 3.1% rise in the overall probability this week. With $1.0M in total volume, it's clear some long-tail hunters are parking capital here. The market is now pricing roughly a 16% chance of a parabolic move. It's a sharp repricing for a market this thin, showing a shift from total skepticism toward an outlier scenario.
Eyes are on the upcoming COMEX delivery data scheduled for the final week of May. If inventory levels at the exchange continue to drop while open interest stays high, the squeeze narrative will get more fuel. The next data point to track is the May 29 options expiry.
13¢ → 16¢ • Vol: $1.0M