SpaceX bulls tick up as Cathie Wood teases $3T orbital data center path
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are bidding up the long-shot bet that SpaceX will hit a $3 trillion valuation upon its public debut. This market was quiet, but the latest tick from 17¢ to 20¢ suggests fresh conviction. It's a massive target for a company still clearing its final regulatory hurdles.
The move follows a one-two punch of IPO rumors and bold revenue forecasts. Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported on May 18 that SpaceX's confidential S-1 could become public this week. Meanwhile, Ark Invest's Cathie Wood teased a $3 trillion bull case at the Milken Institute, arguing the company's new orbital data center business—fueled by the xAI merger—could scale revenue by orders of magnitude beyond current satellite internet projections.
The market is now pricing roughly a 20% chance for that $3 trillion milestone, up from 17% earlier this week. While a 3.0% rise isn't a stampede, it's a steady bid on $0.5M total volume. Traders are betting that the Musk premium and the June 12 IPO scale will defy traditional valuation multiples.
The real test arrives with the public release of the S-1 filing, expected by mid-week. That document will show the actual burn rate from the xAI merger and whether Starlink's margins can carry a multi-trillion-dollar valuation into the June 12 listing date.
--- MARKET SNAPSHOT — 2026-05-19 02:45 UTC Platform: Polymarket | YES: 17¢ → 20¢ (↑ 3.0%) | Volume: $0.5M | Implied probability: 20%
17¢ → 20¢ • Vol: $0.5M