SpaceX IPO Odds Plunge as Underwriters Target $1.75 Trillion Valuation
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket’s contract for a $2.5T to $3.0T SpaceX market cap crashed today as traders rapidly adjusted to new valuation data. This sharp move follows months of speculation regarding the final IPO price for the space and artificial intelligence conglomerate. The market, which previously held a neutral outlook on the high-valuation scenario, shifted dramatically as leaked internal figures began circulating among institutional desks.
The selling pressure intensified following a Reuters report on April 27, 2026, which indicated that SpaceX is officially targeting a valuation range of $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion for its upcoming June listing. Sources cited in the report, alongside analysis from Bloomberg, suggest that the orbital data center projections derived from the recent xAI merger have faced fresh scrutiny from lead underwriters like Goldman Sachs. These revised benchmarks make the $2.5 trillion threshold increasingly unlikely for day-one trading.
This rapid descent from 50¢ to 27¢ was supported by $0.8M in total volume, reflecting a significant exit from Yes positions by prediction market participants. The current price now implies a 27% probability that the company will hit the $2.5 trillion mark by the close of its first day. Such a contraction in odds underscores a broader market pivot toward the more conservative valuation floor currently being reported by major financial outlets.
Investors are now awaiting the public release of the company’s S-1 filing, which is expected by mid-May 2026 according to reports from The Information. This document will provide the first audited financials for the combined SpaceX and xAI entity. Additionally, a major investor roadshow scheduled for June 11 will serve as the final confirmation of the price range before shares begin trading on the Nasdaq.
50¢ → 27¢ • Vol: $0.8M