Strait of Hormuz transit odds rise as ship counts double
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are betting on a controlled thaw in the Persian Gulf as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz edges toward the 60-call threshold. The market is now pricing roughly a 51% chance of normalization by July 31. It's a modest move, rising from 48¢ to 51¢ on $0.6M in volume. This follows a May 20 report from Lloyd's List showing 54 ships transited the waterway between May 11 and 17. That's double the previous week. While the U.S. Navy still intercepts vessels like the M/T Celestial Sea, the IRGC claims its new authority is coordinating dozens of daily transits. Iran's using a fragile ceasefire to cement a permit regime that turns an international chokepoint into a sovereign toll road.
A three-cent move might look like a drift, but it signals growing confidence that Iran's permit system is actually moving hulls. The market doesn’t care about the legality of the new authority. It only cares about the count. If the IRGC keeps pushing 31 vessels through every 24 hours as they claimed on May 21, the IMF Portwatch moving average will hit the 60-vessel target weeks ahead of the July deadline. Watch the next IMF Portwatch data release on May 28 to see if the recent jump in tanker activity survives the friction of the ongoing U.S. naval blockade.
--- Market snapshot Venue ............ Polymarket Captured ......... 2026-05-21 17:00 UTC YES (last) ....... 51¢ (51% implied) Move ............. 48¢ → 51¢ (↑ 3.0%) Volume ........... $0.6M
48¢ → 51¢ • Vol: $0.6M