Trump’s Don’t Rush Truth Social Post Slams Iran Oil Relief Odds
· flowframe Pulse
Iran hawks are winning the week on Polymarket as the clock runs out on a May breakthrough. The market for oil relief is losing steam after a weekend of heavy optimism. Trading volume reached $0.6M as participants reacted to a shifting diplomatic calendar.
The slide follows a Truth Social post where President Trump told negotiators not to rush because time is on our side. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio says a framework is 95% complete, the administration is favoring a 60-day verification window over immediate relief. The Associated Press reports GOP skeptics like Ted Cruz are pressuring the White House to hold the line, making a signature this month unlikely.
Prices dipped by 8.5%, falling from 26¢ to 17¢ as the reality of the calendar set in. The market is now pricing roughly a 17% chance of a signature by the deadline. It’s a clear signal that traders expect the May 31 cutoff to pass without Trump’s agreement on the final sanctions waivers.
Eyes are on Wednesday's Cabinet meeting where Trump will review the MOU draft with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Any leak regarding the specific timing of the first oil waivers will dictate the final move. Everything hinges on the outcome of that Cabinet meeting.
--- MARKET SNAPSHOT — 2026-05-27 16:03 UTC Platform: Polymarket | YES: 26¢ → 17¢ (↓ 8.5%) | Volume: $0.6M | Implied probability: 17%
26¢ → 17¢ • Vol: $0.6M