US-Iran nuclear deal odds rise as Trump sets one-week deadline
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are betting on a diplomatic pivot as the market for a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 ticked up from 63¢ to 66¢ this week. This move follows an Axios report that secret talks in Oman have brought both nations closer to a resolution than at any point during the current conflict. The $1.3M in total volume reflects the high stakes of President Donald Trump's May 6 ultimatum, giving Tehran a one-week deadline to accept a new proposal or face escalation. The market is now pricing roughly a 66% chance that the sides reach an agreement. While official news is sparse, the presence of senior negotiators in Muscat suggests a pragmatic exit is finally on the table.
A three-cent rise isn't a surge, but it shows the tape is leaning toward a resolution. While the short-dated May 31 contract sits at 23.5%, the 66% price for the 2027 horizon suggests the recent ticking clock has forced a genuine repricing of a deal once thought impossible. We'll know soon if this is a head-fake. The next concrete signal arrives during the June 3 IAEA Board of Governors meeting, where any change in Iran's uranium enrichment posture will confirm if these secret channels actually had legs or if the standoff is set to resume.
--- Market snapshot Venue ............ Polymarket Captured ......... 2026-05-18 22:45 UTC YES (last) ....... 66¢ (66% implied) Move ............. 63¢ → 66¢ (↑ 3.0%) Volume ........... $1.3M
63¢ → 66¢ • Vol: $1.3M