Will the White House and Tehran actually sign a deal?
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are pricing in a potential breakthrough as the contract for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026, ticks up. The price rose from 42¢ to 45¢ on a total volume of $0.5M. It's a 3.0% rise that comes amid a spike in geopolitical betting across the platform. While the odds still favor a "No" outcome, the bid shows a growing appetite for a scenario where decades of hostility end in a formal signature.
The momentum is a reaction to President Trump's May 23 claim that a deal with Iran and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz are "largely negotiated." This follows a fragile ceasefire brokered in April after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. According to reports from NPR and AP, US and Iranian envoys met in Muscat to finalize broad principles for a permanent framework. While Trump described his own decision as a "50/50" coin flip between accepting the deal or resuming military strikes, the markets are leaning toward the diplomatic path. Some traders cite the recent stabilization in oil prices as a signal that Tehran is ready to trade its remaining uranium stockpile for a total lifting of the current blockade.
The next hard deadline is the ceasefire expiration on June 7. We're looking for a formal announcement of a signing ceremony or a joint statement from Swiss intermediaries before the clock runs out. If the June 7 deadline passes without a signed treaty, the "Yes" tokens will likely crater as the ceasefire extension remains unconfirmed. Watch for any sudden movement in Brent crude as an early indicator of renewed military friction.
--- Snapshot Venue — Polymarket Timestamp — 2026-05-25 13:22 UTC YES last — 45¢ (45% implied) Move — 42¢ → 45¢ (↑ 3.0%) Volume — $0.5M
42¢ → 45¢ • Vol: $0.5M