Will Trump sign the Iran ceasefire extension?
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are losing faith in a month-end miracle. The price for a new US-Iran agreement just dipped from 41¢ to 38¢. While total volume has reached $2.6M, the "Yes" side is bleeding out because a promised headline hasn't crossed the wires. We've seen plenty of diplomatic chatter, but silence is finally exhausting the bulls. Traders aren't willing to pay 40 cents for a hope that hasn't materialized yet.
The move reflects a gap between a tentative deal and a signed one. Axios and the Associated Press report that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US officials have drafted a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. This framework includes a return to nuclear talks. However, the market is cooling because President Trump hasn't signed the document yet. Compounding the delay, the US military recently accused Iran of violating the truce following an attack near Kuwait. This fresh friction makes traders doubt the President will finalize the deal. They're spooked that being close won't be enough to beat the Friday resolution deadline.
The only catalyst that matters now is the May 31 cutoff. We're watching for a formal White House announcement or a State Department briefing to confirm the 60-day extension. If Friday night passes without a public commitment, the contract resolves to zero. Any sudden movement in the Cabinet's schedule or a late-night social media post will likely trigger the final exit.
--- Snapshot Venue — Polymarket Timestamp — 2026-05-28 18:31 UTC YES last — 38¢ (38% implied) Move — 41¢ → 38¢ (↓ 3.0%) Volume — $2.6M
41¢ → 38¢ • Vol: $2.6M