"Worth less than half" — Morningstar warning nudges SpaceX IPO odds
· flowframe Pulse
Morningstar analyst Nic Owens' warning that SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO target is worth less than half its fair value has hit the Polymarket market on "SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?". The report, released as the roadshow picks up speed, questions the $26.5 trillion addressable market claim. Bulls don't want to hear it right now.
Traders are reacting by pulling the 65¢ previous price down to 62¢, meaning the market is pricing roughly a 62% chance the cap clears $2 trillion. The 3.0% dip reflects a cooling of the day-one pop hype. With $1.0M in total volume, bettors are weighing the massive retail allocation against institutional skepticism regarding the xAI burn rate which recently hit $1 billion monthly.
The skepticism isn't new, but it's getting louder. Earlier this year, Elon Musk dismissed $2 trillion valuation reports as "BS" before the May 20 S-1 filing confirmed the ambitious $135 per share target. While Nasdaq changed its rules to allow SpaceX a fast-track entry into the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500's refusal to follow suit has created a divide in how major index providers view the whole listing today.
All eyes turn to June 11, the day SpaceX is expected to finalize its IPO pricing. If the book remains oversubscribed despite the valuation warnings, we'll see if the June 12 listing on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX can defy the bears.
--- The tape, as of 2026-06-09 14:10 UTC: Polymarket YES contracts on this market last printed at 62¢ — implied probability 62% — on $1.0M of cumulative volume. Move from prior reference: 65¢ to 62¢ (↓ 3.0%).
65¢ → 62¢ • Vol: $1.0M