WTI $100 Odds Tick Up to 63% Following Middle East Supply Disruptions
· flowframe Pulse
Polymarket traders are repricing the likelihood of WTI crude oil breaking the $100 threshold before the end of April. Following a volatile session on global energy markets, the contract tracking a triple-digit peak for West Texas Intermediate rose by 3.5% as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reached a new inflection point despite a fragile regional ceasefire.
The move was triggered by reports on April 23 of explosions in Tehran, which briefly spiked WTI futures to an intraday high of $97.22. Although Iranian state media later clarified the sounds were part of an air defense drill, the market remains on edge due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), supply shut-ins are expected to hit 9.1 million barrels per day this month as Iranian forces continue to restrict international shipping traffic.
Trading activity on the platform saw the contract tick up from 60¢ to 63¢ as buyers absorbed the heightened geopolitical risk premium. This shift occurred across a total volume of $1.0M, indicating substantial liquidity and institutional interest behind the movement. The current pricing now implies a 63% probability of WTI touching triple digits, reflecting a growing consensus that structural supply constraints in the Gulf will outweigh the impact of temporary diplomatic efforts.
Market participants are now looking toward the April 25 release of the Department of Energy’s weekly inventory data for confirmation of deepening supply draws. Beyond domestic reports, any further naval friction in the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary upside catalyst. Continued failure to restore full transit through the waterway could see WTI challenge the $100 barrier before the April contract expires at month-end.
60¢ → 63¢ • Vol: $1.0M